A magical Portland Trail Blazers series ended on Wednesday night. The Trail Blazers fought valiantly, but fell 4-1 to the superior Warriors in the Western Conference semifinals.
The Trail Blazers can build something special as long as they stay patient
The temptation to make a splash in free agency will be significant for Portland, but waiting another year before going all in is the best option.
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
No one thought they would make it this far, but injuries to opponents and their own mettle guided them to their second round for just the second time in the past 15 years. Considering they were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league after losing four starters, that’s a truly impressive feat.
Now that their run is over, the focus shifts to the future. The Blazers clearly have the opportunity to build something special and lasting, but they will have to be careful how they go about doing it. The Suns and Bucks provide recent examples of teams that overachieved, only to regress the next year by skipping steps and going through dramatic personnel changes that harmed team unity.
Rushing the process and turning over the roster has the potential to hurt that delicate chemistry the Blazers built this year, but the Blazers do clearly need an infusion of talent to make the jump to contender. How they should proceed from here? With caution.
Youth and a shallow West mean the Blazers can be patient
The league is at an interesting place. Some perennial playoff squads are slowing down, there are only a handful of elite teams and the truly transcendent young talent is still a few years away from its peak. The West is simply not as deep anymore. That creates the opportunity for up-and-comers to make moves to improve in the short term, but it also allows solid teams to wait things out while still making the postseason.
The Blazers could go either way. They could have more than $45 million in cap space to offer a maximum contract and much more. If they land one of the better free agents out there, they could fight for home-court advantage next season. Plug in Al Horford or even Dwight Howard in the middle and the defense could improve while the offense remains potent. A core of Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and a big free agent should get past the first round and even make the conference finals if things break right. That's not a bad goal. In fact, that's what the Hawks should go for.
Since their biggest star is 25 years old and their second-best player is 24, however, the Blazers can also afford to wait.
If the right fit for the right money isn't there, there's no need to make a move just for the sake of shaking things up. Horford, Howard, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Al Jefferson, to name a few, would, in theory, represent upgrades over the big men on the roster, but having any of them in the books for multiple years at a high salary would limit Portland's flexibility just to have a shot to get to the second round again. That's not worth it considering the Blazers have the top-level young talent, leadership and cohesion to one day dream of contention. Inserting a high-priced veteran runs the risk of disrupting that chemistry.
General manager Neil Olshey can simply ride the roster he has right now if his preferred targets are not available and likely still make the playoffs. That’s a luxury not a lot of general managers have. Then, next offseason, he could go after one of the many high-caliber players that will be available in a very deep free agency class.
The Trail Blazers don’t even know how good they are yet
One of the biggest reasons why patience is the best course of action is because the Blazers are so young. No one on the roster outside of Lillard and McCollum seems like a potential star, but the other young players should continue to improve and reach a higher ceiling. Spending money to bring in outsiders instead of betting on internal development could be counterproductive in the long run. The Blazers have proven they are excellent at developing talent.
As an example, Portland needs a wing or a guard who can create to ease some of the pressure off the stars. This free agency class is filled with those types of players -- Jamal Crawford, Evan Turner and Jeremy Lin are three that make sense on paper. Yet 24-year-old Allen Crabbe, who will be a restricted free agent, still has some potential to develop into a better scorer than any of those players. The Blazers also need wing defense, but 23-year-old Maurice Harkless -- also a restricted free agent to be -- is already on his way to becoming a solid wing starter who can give them 30 minutes a night while taking the toughest assignments and allowing McCollum to rest on defense. Crabbe and Harkless are not finished products, but they already know their place in the hierarchy of the team. That has value.
Something similar happens when addressing the need for a stretch big man. Before going down for the season with a shoulder injury, Meyers Leonard was shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc. He struggled guarding power forwards, but he was a solid defensive rebounder with range. Ersan Ilyasova, Mirza Teletovic and Ryan Anderson are upgrades, but they are all older and it's impossible to know how they will mesh with the rest of the roster. Re-signing the 24-year-old Leonard to see if he can improve while also having youngster Noah Vonleh around sounds like a better plan. It's less likely to affect team chemistry negatively.
There’s still time to improve the roster. Even if they bring back their three restricted free agents for a combined $25 million and account for McCollum’s 2017 cap hold, the Blazers would have around $25 million to spend next offseason provided the cap rises above $100 million as predicted. This is not their only shot at adding talent. In lieu of upgrading the roster, Portland may be better off further building their culture around a group of players that enjoys playing together.
This free agency class is filled with risky players
Chris Kaman, Gerald Henderson and Brian Roberts will likely to leave in free agency and the Blazers don't have a draft pick, so they will have to make some free-agent additions. The Pistons have the ability to match a maximum offer for Andre Drummond, the Blazers' ideal target. Other restricted free agents, however, might be attainable if Portland is willing to take a risk.
The question is who. Is it worth it to throw near-max money at Warriors center Festus Ezeli, hoping he will stay healthy and become a dominant defensive center? Possibly. Magic guard Evan Fournier could be a perfect sixth man for them, but can he defend small forwards well enough to be on the court next to Lillard and McCollum? Rockets big man Donatas Motiejunas can play both big man spots and score inside and out in a pinch, but will his back hold up? Those are questions with no easy answers.
The most interesting option is actually an unrestricted free agent. Miami's Hassan Whiteside proved that he can occasionally draw a double team in the post and create space by diving to the basket off ball screens. He's a beast on the boards and his impact on team defense is catching up to his gaudy shot-blocking numbers. He's also just 26 years old, so in theory, he could grow with McCollum and Lillard. On the court, he's a great fit to upgrade Portland's center position.
But there are still questions. Will he be willing to defer on offense as much as he did this year once he gets paid like a star? He did accept coming off the bench and improved his free throw shooting this season, so he could be more mature and ready to put in work than he was in the past. Or, he could have just been smart enough to not cause problems in a contract year.
Just like every franchise with cap space, the Blazers will have to seriously consider him because of his talent. But the serious question marks regarding his character may scare away a team that overachieved because of its great chemistry. Portland has to worry about this more than most clubs because they alchemy powered their success this year.
There are simply no slam dunks in free agency this year for a team like the Blazers, unless Kevin Durant somehow picks them. If they fall in love with one of the very risky options available, pulling the trigger could make some sense even if it's not ideal. However, the Suns and Bucks offer cautionary tales.
Waiting a year therefore seems like the best move to make. By then, the Blazers will know for sure if this season was a fluke and could be armed with some cap space and young players with affordable contracts to make a splash to complement the Lillard-McCollum duo. They have the luxury of time and they should use it.
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