NBA Draft Lottery 2016 odds: 76ers have the best shot at top pick
The 76ers have a 25 percent chance of landing the top pick in the draft.
There’s no consensus top prospect this year, as both Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons have been projected to be selected first throughout the year. The 76ers have 25 percent chance to be able to choose between them if one of their combination is the lucky one on Tuesday. Even if they don’t get the No. 1 pick, they will select no lower than fourth, which means they will get an opportunity to grab one of the best players in the class.
Philadelphia won't only be focusing on their own odds. Back in 2012, the Lakers traded two first-round picks to the Suns for Steve Nash with very little protection, thinking they were going to be contenders. Things clearly didn't go as planned and now they will have to surrender the pick to the 76ers -- who received it in a trade for Michael Carter-Williams -- if it lands outside the top three. There's a 44.2 percent chance that happens, which means Bryan Colangelo could get to pick in the top five twice in the draft.
If the picks goes to Philadelphia, the Lakers will not only be giving up the possibility to select a good prospect but also giving up a great trade asset that could come in handy if a star becomes available in the offseason. Needless to say, that’s the nightmare scenario. On the other hand, they have a 19.9 chance of leapfrogging the Sixers and getting the top overall pick, which would obviously give it more value. There’s a lot riding in this lottery for Los Angeles.
While the Lakers will be praying the ping pong balls bounce in their favor, their rival Celtics will be playing with found money. They received the Nets' pick for this year in the trade in which they sent out Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, which means they have a 15.6 chance of landing the first overall pick despite having made the playoffs, the third best odds in the league. Danny Ainge has been looking for a star since starting the rebuilding process and could get one in the draft without having to bottom out.
The Suns and Timberwolves complete the top five with an 11.9 and 8.8 percent chance of landing the top pick, respectively.
Here are the odds of landing the first over pick for all lottery teams
NBA draft lottery odds 2016
1. 76ers (25 percent)
2. Lakers (19.9 percent)
3. Celtics (From Nets, 15.6 percent)
4. Suns (11.9 percent)
5. Timberwolves (8.8 percent)
6. Pelicans (6.3 percent)
7. Nuggets (4.3 percent)
8. Kings (1.9 percent, 76ers can swap picks)
9. Raptors (From Nuggets, 1.9 percent)
10. Bucks (1.8 percent)
11. Magic (0.8 percent)
12. Jazz (0.7 percent)
13. Suns (From Wizards, 0.6 percent)
14. Bulls (0.5 percent)
