Preakness 2016: Post positions and morning line odds

Thirty-eight years ago in 1978, thoroughbred racing fans watched the battle of Affirmed and Alydar, with Affirmed narrowly beating Alydar each time to take home the second Triple Crown earned in two years. They followed up the undefeated performance by Seattle Slew in 1977 with excitement every race.

Are we watching history repeat itself in 2016? American Pharoah ended the 37-year Triple Crown drought last year in dominating fashion, and now Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist is an undefeated 8-for-8, having already beaten Exaggerator on multiple occasions.

At the 2016 Preakness Stakes, which will be held Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Nyquist and Exaggerator will start just two positions apart. The favorite, Nyquist, breaks from the third spot and Exaggerator opens in the fifth. Nyquist earned huge favorite status in the morning line odds, which open at 3-5 in his favor. That gives him a better than 60 percent chance to win the 1-3/16 mile race. Exaggerator was set at 3-1, or about a 25 percent chance.

The two are familiar foes, with the Derby two weeks ago the most recent meeting. Exaggerator, trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, closed strong at the end but didn’t have enough track to catch Nyquist.

Meanwhile this is familiar ground for the connections of Nyquist (named after Red Wings hockey player Gustav Nyquist). Trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another, then also earned victory at Pimlico to set up a Triple Crown bid. Unfortunately for them, it fell short when I’ll Have Another had to be scratched the day before the Belmont Stakes. So a win Saturday could give them the opportunity they did not have before.

Just to add a bit to the drama, forecasts call for rain all day on Saturday at Pimlico, with occasional heavy downfall. The 141st running of the Preakness will undoubtedly be messy. Both leading colts are familiar with less than ideal conditions. Exaggerator rallied from nearly 20 lengths back at a sloppy Santa Anita track earlier in the year against several fellow Derby contenders, only to win by nearly seven lengths. Nyquist won the Florida Derby on a damp track himself in April.

A possible spoiler in the field of 11 is Stradivari, who’ll break from the outside 11th position. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he’s been set at 8-1 odds. Several others in the field are at 10-1 or 20-1, but most were set at 30-1, including Lani, who finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

While leaning on the past for narratives can certainly be a bit overdone, you could do worse than have a repeat of 1978’s season. We’ll see soon if we do.