Preakness Stakes 2016 contenders: Can relative unknown Stradivari surprise at Pimlico?

Don’t overthink this. The best two colts in the field at the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago are still the best two in the field at the 2016 Preakness Stakes on Saturday. Nyquist, the undefeated winner of the Derby, will deservedly have prohibitive favorite odds of winning Saturday at Pimlico in Baltimore, while Exaggerator, though strong, makes for a good upset pick but has his work cut out for him if he’s going to win.

Not surprisingly, most experts are taking Nyquist to win.

There are eight newcomers in the field of 11, but only one, the relatively untested Stradivari, who is given more than a snowball’s chance of winning.

And then we’ve got the subplot of the weather forecast. Forecasts call for heavy rains earlier in the day and steady rain throughout. With more than an inch forecast, the 1-3/16 mile race at Pimlico could be pretty sloppy. While all of that sounds like reason to takes some risks, it’s not. Nyquist is still the best, and Exaggerator probably won’t catch him.

After that? Well, good luck picking the third-place finisher.

Out of Uncle Mo, trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez, Nyquist has the connections and the resume to say this race is his to lose, just as the Kentucky Derby was. He enters the race a perfect 8-for-8. He’s won on dry tracks, wet tracks. He’s beaten all kinds of competition in locations around the country. The Grade I Florida Derby victory against then-undefeated Mohaymen was impressive, as was holding off Exaggerator at Churchill Downs two weeks ago.

His 3-5 morning line odds tell you he’s given a better than 60 percent chance of coming out of Pimlico with the second jewel of the triple crown. And why not? Outside of Exaggerator, the field looks weaker and no one stands out.

I’ve said this before, but it’s hard not to watch the Grade I Santa Anita Derby and not come away impressed with Exaggerator, the colt trained by Keith Desormeaux with his brother, Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux, serving as the jockey. On a muddy, awful track like they’re likely to see in Baltimore, Exaggerator falls way back, then finds a gear the competition doesn’t have. Seconds later he’s pulling away from the field and cruising to a win by nearly seven lengths.

In the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator closed hard in the final few hundred yards and came about a length from victory. In the slightly shorter Preakness, will he have the distance? Will Kent Desormeaux start the charge a little earlier after sitting back? Or will the early challenge only inspire Nyquist?

Exaggerator was given 3-1 morning line odds, so the possibility of a victory is definitely there. Just unlikely.

Sired by Medaglia d’Oro and trained by Todd Pletcher, Stradivari has just three starts to his career and just one as a 3-year-old. In April, he ran a 1-1/8-mile allowance race at Keeneland in 1:48, or more than a second faster than Nyquist’s time in the similarly distanced Florida Stakes.

“When he left his foes behind and kept extending his winning margin all the way to the wire, in both his wins, I had my hand covering my mouth by the end of his run and a glint of something wet and blurry in the eye (Uh, she cried again). To have a homebred run like that fills you with awe, and in that moment it makes up for all of the tough times and disappointments. My dad said that when Stradivari won at Gulfstream, the thought crossed his mind that this might be the best horse he has ever bred.”

All of these things make you scratch your chin and wonder: Wait, can this relatively untested, unknown newcomer surprise everyone at the Preakness?

Sure. He could. But do you want to risk taking him against the two battle-tested favorites? Especially when he’s never ran father than 1-1/8 miles or been tested in a graded race?

Yet it can be done. Look no further than Bernardini, who had just three starts to his name before winning the 2006 Preakness, for hope and inspiration.

The intrigue and the times might explain why Stradivari (8-1) is the only other colt set at better than 10-1 odds.

Most of the field has been set at 10-1 odds or worse. Bob Baffert’s charge, Collected, is 10-1. This will be his first Grade I race. Uncle Lino (20-1) put together a nice resume in California and earned “also eligible” consideration for the Kentucky Derby if there were multiple scratches to the field. Awesome Speed (30-1) has multiple victories in Maryland already, automatically earning his way into the Preakness with a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes in April. Abiding Star (30-1) has won all five races he has entered as a 3-year-old, including three stakes race.