Serge Ibaka is reportedly on the trade block

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s important offseason is off to an interesting start. They are “shopping” starting big man Serge Ibaka as the 2016 NBA Draft nears, according to The Undefeated’s Marc Spears.

The news is slightly out of left field, though not entirely so. Earlier in the day, HBO’s Bill Simmons asked his followers if they would offer Ibaka to teams in an attempt to move into the top 10 of this draft. Nevertheless, the idea that the Thunder would deal one of its core pieces with the backdrop of Kevin Durant’s free agency looming is surprising.

Ibaka’s production took a hit last year after he missed the second half of the 2014-15 season with a knee injury. He averaged just 12.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, his lowest marks since the 2011-12 season. The emergence of Steven Adams has made Ibaka less essential in a way, which may explain the possible desire to move him. Ibaka is also in the last year of his contract.

Nevertheless, Ibaka has been as much a part of Oklahoma City’s rise as Durant and Russell Westbrook. Would the Thunder really trade him?

There’s an answer here for two different situations. If the Thunder believe that Durant is leaving, it’s easy to understand the desire to also move Ibaka and commit to a rebuilding effort.

Yet there is also an argument to make this move even if Durant stays. Though Ibaka is still a very important player, his production and athleticism declined last season and it’s unclear if it will ever recover. With Adams set to become an even bigger part of the Thunder’s future, Ibaka may not be as important to the Thunder’s success.

The specter of Ibaka’s free agency looms as well. Oklahoma City’s payroll is about to get very expensive, with Durant commanding a massive new salary, Westbrook needing an even bigger new deal after 2017 and Adams also likely to receive a maximum contract coming off his rookie deal. Oklahoma City is already paying Enes Kanter big money, may need to do the same this summer to retain Dion Waiters and will eventually have to take care of Andre Roberson.

Thus, even with the cap jumping to $110 million in 2017, there probably won’t be room to also give Ibaka the big extension he deserves. Trading him now to receive a cost-controlled draft pick may make it easier for the Thunder to fit others in affordably. It’s also better than letting him walk for nothing next year.

Because despite his dip in production, Ibaka is still very good. His combination of shot blocking and three-point shooting makes him close to an NBA unicorn even in this new pace-and-space era. His value was clearly underscored in the Thunder’s near-victory over the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. The Celtics, Suns, Timberwolves, Raptors and Bucks should all strongly consider dealing their picks for Ibaka if this move is indeed on the table.

More importantly: What kind of message does it send to Durant if the Thunder trade one of their franchise pillars for a draft pick? The Thunder’s hopes blow up in smoke if Durant leaves, so why tempt fate and deal Ibaka now because of what might be a problem a year from now?

The Thunder are right to sniff around because the payroll problem that’ll result in 2017 is impossible to navigate otherwise. However, the optics of trading Ibaka just before the free agency of your star player seem like too much to overcome. Trading Ibaka is worth considering, but ultimately the Thunder should pass.