NBA free agency is just about here. There’s little more fun than making wild predictions as to where players will land and for how much dough. (Notice I said the fun is in making the predictions, not necessarily reading them.) Here are those predictions. I’m mostly ignoring salary cap sheet situations due to the high levels of cap space throughout the league and the increased ability (if not likelihood) of teams being able to shed salary to get the necessary space for free agent targets.
NBA free agency predictions 2016: Where, and for how much, the top 50 players will sign
NBA teams are about to spend a ton of money in free agency. We run through the top 50 free agents to figure out where everyone will end up, and for how much.
1. Kevin Durant: The finances of the 1+1 in Oklahoma City just make too much sense. Two years, $58.5 million with the Thunder with a player option on Year 2.
2. LeBron James: Likewise. Two years, $68.3 million for LeBron in Cleveland. He can keep signing these at escalating rates for a decade after what he pulled off.
3. Andre Drummond (restricted): I think the Pistons will absolutely keep Drummond, but I think something interesting is going to happen here, like four years, $108 million with a player option after Year 3.
4. Mike Conley: Five years, $125 million to re-up with the Grizzlies.
5. Al Horford: Four years, $120 million with the Boston Celtics. Go for broke. Here’s your star, in a way.
6. DeMar DeRozan: Five years, $161 million to stay with Toronto, announced early on July 1. A gobsmacker of a deal.
7. Dwyane Wade: Two years, $50 million with Miami.
8. Hassan Whiteside: Four years, $80 million with the Los Angeles Lakers. Godspeed to you.
9. Dwight Howard: Three years, $75 million with the Wizards. Team option after Year 2.
10. Dirk Nowitzki: Three years, $36 million with Dallas. Player option after Year 2.
11. Nicolas Batum: Five years, $120 million in Charlotte. I can’t even process these numbers, really.
12. Tim Duncan: Picked up his player option because he hates paperwork that much.
13. Bradley Beal (restricted): Four years, $98 million with the Wizards, with a player option after Year 3. You could kind of call this a compromise deal? I mean, a compromise deal that pays Bradley Beal up to $98 million ...
14. Harrison Barnes (restricted): He stays in Golden State at five years for $81,999,999, or $1 less than Draymond Green’s deal. Then he hits a bunch of big playoffs shots next year.
15. Chandler Parsons: Four years, $94 million in Orlando. Not quite max, but holy smokes man.
16. Kent Bazemore: Four years, $84 million in Phoenix.
17. Bismack Biyombo: Four years, $66 million in Toronto.
18. Pau Gasol: Two years, $18 million in Golden State, player option on Year 2.
19. Marvin Williams: Four years, $55 million in New Orleans.
20. Festus Ezeli (restricted): The Warriors match a three-year, $42 million offer sheet signed with the Mavericks, then trade Andrew Bogut.
21. Joakim Noah: Two years, $30 million (team option on Year 2) with the Knicks
22. Jordan Clarkson (restricted): Oh boy. Four years, $65 million with the Lakers.
23. Evan Fournier (restricted): Four years, $75 million with the Magic.
24. Dion Waiters (restricted): Three years, $39 million with the Brooklyn Nets.
25. Eric Gordon: Three years, $45 million with the New York Knicks. Team option after Year 2.
26. Ryan Anderson: Four years, $80 million with the Sacramento Kings. Welcome home, Ryno.
27. Evan Turner: Three years, $45 million with the Pelicans.
28. Allen Crabbe (restricted): Three years, $32 million with those damn Blazers.
29. Shaun Livingston (partial guarantee): The Warriors fully guarantee his contract.
30. Jeremy Lin: It is with considerable glee that I write: four years, $76 million with the Mavericks.
31. Courtney Lee: Three years, $32 million with the Pistons.
32. Luol Deng: Two years, $14 million with the Clippers. Player option after Year 1.
33. J.R. Smith: Three years, $30 million with Cleveland. Team option after Year 2.
34. Rajon Rondo: Sigh. Two years, $37 million in Sacramento.
35. Arron Afflalo: I have literally no read on Afflalo’s future. So uh ... three years, $27 million with the Sixers?
36. Amir Johnson (fully unguaranteed): Boston waives Johnson to sign Horford. The Hawks sign Johnson to a two-year, $24 million deal.
37. Tyler Johnson (restricted): Three years, $15 million with Miami.
38. Matthew Dellavedova (restricted): Four years, $48 million with the Rockets. Cleveland declines to match.
39. Boban Marjanovic (restricted): The Spurs withdraw their qualifying offer and sign Boban to a one-year, $6 million deal.
40. Robert Covington (fully unguaranteed): The Sixers guarantee Covington’s contract.
41. Ian Mahinmi: Two years, $24 million with Indiana.
42. Brandon Jennings: Two years, $28 million with Philadelphia. You have your point guard!
43. Joe Johnson: One year, $5 million in Miami.
44. Deron Williams: One year, $10 million in Chicago.
45. Al Jefferson: Two years, $16 million in Dallas.
46. Jamal Crawford: Memphis! Two years, $24 million.
47. Josh Richardson (fully unguaranteed): Miami will guarantee the hell out of this.
48. Jared Sullinger (restricted): Three years, $30 million in Charlotte.
49. Ersan Ilyasova (partial guarantee): The Thunder will waive him to save the money. He’ll end up with the Blazers for $5 million.
50. Jared Dudley: Two years, $18 million with the Warriors. (Can the Warriors afford all this? Where there’s a will, there’s a way.)
My deepest apologies to the Bucks, Jazz, Nuggets, Timberwolves and any other team I left out of the derby. These teams are built through the draft and lack obvious holes that can be filled reasonably with this free agent class. Trust me, y’all: When you see the numbers flying around, you’ll be glad your team is sitting the top-50 free agent party out.
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