Picking the midseason awards for the National League

We’re at the spiritual halfway point of the season, not the mathematical halfway point. That’s important, because it means that we’re even closer to these fake awards being fake legitimate. These are the first-half awards for the National League, and the winners are already closer to the end of the season than they are to the beginning. They might just win these things.

And if you think these first-half awards don’t mean anything, please note that the players can still print this story out if they want.

There’s still a heckuva lot of season left, though. Last year it looked like either Zack Greinke or Clayton Kershaw was going to win the NL Cy Young, and then Jake Arrieta allowed four earned runs in his final 88 innings. That’s ... that’s not hyperbole for the purposes of a stupid joke. That actually happened. So don’t read too much into the first-half awards.

You can read the midseason awards for the American League here, and it’s time to check in with the Senior Circuit:

Okay, now that I’ve written the header, I’ll just go and check the stats aaaaaand yup, he’s the Cy Young, alright. The only question is his health, as he’s missed three starts already, and he should miss more after the break. The competition is strong enough that if you’re looking at a difference between a Kershaw with 180 innings and a Madison Bumgarner with 220, you can make legitimate arguments that the extra 40 innings going to a sixth starter (or in the Dodgers’ case, a 17th starter) should be counted against a Cy Young case.

And it’s not just Bumgarner, of course. Johnny Cueto had a brilliant first half, as did Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. Jake Arrieta gave up more runs in his last start than he did in his last 12 starts of the 2015 season, but he’s still a contender, even after the rough patch. Noah Syndergaard is the only pitcher in baseball currently even remotely close to Kershaw’s historic K/BB ratio, though he’s also missing starts with a dead arm, which is more than a little ominous.

The big right-hander had to leave his start Friday because of a “fatigued arm,” and Monday said he became concerned because when he threw the baseball, “It almost felt like I was throwing with a parachute attached to my arm.”

Same, but with walking up a flight of stairs instead of throwing a baseball. Syndergaard was probably the best contender to Kershaw’s throne, but reading that makes me flinch.

No, it’s Kershaw, back willing. It’s always Kershaw. I’m just going to copy and paste most of this into a 2019 version of the same article. I’m not sure why we even pay attention to other pitchers.

Ah, but is Kershaw the MVP? First, some ground rules. Yes, pitchers should be considered. Here is the last line of the instructions on every ballot.

Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.

That is the least ambiguous instruction possible. It might as well read, “Look, if you’re one of those dinks who likes to make up your own definitions and rules, stop. You don’t get to eliminate the gannet from Olsen’s Standard Book of British Birds because they wet their nests, and you don’t get to eliminate pitchers from MVP arguments because they already have their own award.”

Now, in theory, I would love a Cy Young Award and a Honus Wagner Award, with pitchers and hitters never crossing paths. But the old-timey folks didn’t think that far ahead, so we’re stuck. And pitchers are eligible.

To the stats:

Kershaw - 4.7 WAR Baseball-Reference, 5.5 WAR FanGraphs
Bryant - 4.6 WAR Baseball-Reference, 5.0 WAR FanGraphs

Anything with a half-win is essentially a tie for me. There are so many variables to consider, from the inexactitude of defensive metrics to the wisdom of using FIP to gauge a pitcher’s actual accumulated value instead of runs allowed. Add in park effects and positional adjustments, and there’s no way you should look at a half-win difference as anything other than a piece of supporting evidence.

That written, I’ll just make something up to support my choice: Tie goes to the position player. I’m pretty sure that both players have been roughly as valuable for their respective teams, but I’ll choose the aesthetics of a position player winning the MVP for my tiebreaker. It’s not scientific. It’s not not making up my own rules, like I made fun of up there. But if I’m voting for a pitcher for MVP, I want a clear, obvious choice. I want an extra win or two or three. I want pure, sustained dominance over a hitter having a merely great season.

Kershaw might have had those qualifications without the back injury, and if he repeats his historic first half, it would be hard to vote against him at the end of the season. For now, though, gimme Kris Bryant and his chase for 40 homers, especially when it’s paired with solid defense and versatility.

This the obvious choice, of course, but it’s possible to make an argument for Aledmys Diaz if you use Baseball-Reference’s WAR instead of FanGraphs. Seager is at 3.2 WAR, while Diaz is at 3.0. That’s basically a rounding error.

Okay, then, use FanGraphs as the tiebreaker. Seager has a 1.5 WAR lead over him there, with a large chunk of the difference coming because of differences in defensive value, which is something the eyeballs can confirm. Heck, use the raw, unadjusted stats if you want to, and Seager is still the easy choice if you only give him a little credit for his superior defense.

Keep an eye on Edubray Ramos, though. The Phillies’ pitcher has a walk in his only plate appearance, good for a cool 1.000 OBP. Maybe they’ll slot him into the lineup somewhere, and he’ll sustain that record-setting pace. That’s the thing about baseball: You never know.

The Giants have the best record in baseball, even though 3/8ths of the starting lineup has been on the DL for the last month, with half of the Opening Day starters spending significant time on the shelf this year. They’ve also dealt with the most blown saves in baseball and a pair of starting pitcher disasters early in the season.

They’ve persevered, though, and it’s in no small part because of Bochy. Jake Peavy is a suddenly reliable back-of-the-rotation pitcher because Bochy trusted him to turn his season around. The bullpen is merely sketchy instead of awful because of Bochy’s dogged insistence on maintaining the platoon advantage whenever possible — a good thing, considering how awful the Giants’ pen has been against left-handed hitters all year.

Most importantly, Bochy is mixing and matching players like Jarrett Parker, Mac Williamson, Grant Green, Ruben Tejada, Ramiro Peña, and Conor Gillaspie in the starting lineup, all while trying to give Buster Posey the proper amount of rest, and it’s working. I don’t know how, either. The Giants should get Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy, and Denard Span back soon, and they’ll also certainly deal for bullpen help at the deadline. When they do, they might have a nice cushion built up, which is absurd, considering how many things went wrong.

Whenever a team succeeds despite their best laid plans turning into a wet graham cracker, it’s prudent to give the manager a little credit. If you want sentimental reasons, too, note that Bochy has as many Manager of the Year awards as Matt Williams. This wouldn’t be a bad season to fix that.