U.S. Swim Team should dominate yet again

Team USA has won more swimming golds than every other country at every Olympiad since 1988. They won’t blow out their competition in Rio, but that streak of dominance is likely to continue.

The good news is Team USA has Katie Ledecky, the most dominant swimmer in the world and greatest female freestyler of all time. You may remember her from London in 2012, when the precocious 15-year-old surprised everybody with a win in the 800-meter freestyle. She now holds the 11 fastest races of all time in that event. In the Team USA trials this July, she finished in 8:10.32 to beat Leah Smith -- a likely medalist -- by almost 10 seconds, an absurd amount.

Ledecky’s likely to leave Rio with four golds: the 200-meter freestyle, the 400-meter freestyle, the 800-meter freestyle and the 4x200-meter freestyle relay. She’s significantly more likely to break one of her own world records than she is to miss the podium. That’s the good news.

The slightly less good news is that Ledecky is just about the only dominant force Team USA has. Team USA won 16 gold medals in swimming at the 2012 games in London, and has won at least 10 at every Olympics since 1988. They won just eight at last year’s World Championships in Russia, their lowest total since 1994, and that total included a Ledecky win in the 1,500 meters, an event that isn’t contested as part of the Olympic program.

America’s hero may once again be Michael Phelps, who missed last year’s World Championships due to a suspension for a 2014 DUI. Phelps retired after the London Olympics, but when you’re the greatest of all time, retirement is hard. At 31, he’s hoping to become the oldest swimmer ever to win gold in an individual event. After Rio, he’s actually going to retire this time.

Phelps is not racing as big of a program as he used to, as he’s only participating in three events: the 100- and 200-meter butterflies, and the 200-meter individual medley. But Phelps posted the best time in the world in all three of these events last year, so he’s a contender to take gold in each.

Phelps will get one final showdown with his longtime nemesis/teammate Ryan Lochte. Also 31, Lochte is only racing in the 200-meter individual medley, but both he and Phelps have a chance to win. Lochte won it in a Phelps-less field last year in Russia, making him the only American besides Ledecky to medal in an individual event. Phelps, however, posted an even better time than Lochte’s winning result at Nationals in San Antonio last August.

America’s relay teams should also do quite well. Nathan Adrian is one of the best sprinters in the world, and should have a chance at winning the 50-meter freestyle and be a steady anchor for a 4x100-meter freestyle team that won gold in Russia last year. Ledecky will be on the 4x200-meter freestyle relay team that also won gold in Russia last year. Team USA may no longer have the fastest swimmers in many events, but they’ll have enough fast swimmers that a combination of four of them might outpace four from another country.

Missy Franklin was the brightest rising star at the last Olympics, taking four golds. A repeat performance would be unlikely, but she’s got a good chance to medal in the 200-meter backstroke, where she finished second at the World Championships in 2015 and is less than a second off the best time in the world this year.

Swimming will take up most of the first week of the Olympics, starting Aug. 6 and ending on Aug. 13. By then, Katie Ledecky will be a household name.