If anyone was giving Serbia a chance to knock off the United States, it was only one of the token variety. As in “sure, Serbia mathematically has a greater than zero percent chance to beat the U.S.”
Olympic basketball scores 2016: Serbia almost pulled off a miraculous comeback against Team USA
Serbia showed how a well-executed game plan could leave Team USA vulnerable in Rio.
Harrison Faigen has been covering the NBA (primarily the Lakers) since 2013, and is currently the Associate Director of Pro Basketball coverage for SB Nation.
Following a 94-91 nailbiting win for the Americans on Friday, it was clear that Serbia’s chances resided in more than just oddsmakers’ calculators. Nikola Jokić and company gave the Americans everything they could handle while still walking away victorious.
The United States is deservedly being chided for their leaky perimeter defense, but the Serbians deserve credit for exploiting it just the same. As the United States botched rotation after rotation, Stefan Marković (12 points, 2-of-3 on three-pointers) and Miloš Teodosić (18 points, 4-of-7 from behind the arc) capitalized time after time. Only dumb luck saved them from going to overtime, with Bogdan Bogdanović missing a wide-open three that would’ve tied the game in the closing seconds.
When the United States rushed closeouts too hard, Serbia had an answer for that as well. The team got into the paint at will, with big men like Jokić and Miroslav Raduljica making themselves active targets when the United States’ big men moved to cut off drivers.
It was a clinic in how not to communicate on defense, but the Serbians had clearly watched film of the United States’ issues against Australia and executed their offense to a T. Serbia knew the United States would screw something up if they just kept testing them, and their selfless ball movement is how they ended up with a shot chart that looks like this:
Even if their offensive patience didn’t result in a good shot, Serbia knew that a shot clock violation or dead ball turnover would keep the United States out of transition. When that didn’t work, they were happy to take fouls for the same reason: the United States struggles to score against a disciplined halfcourt defense. Paul George himself admitted as much after the game:
“We just have to start getting some movement. We’re relying on our natural talent so much. It’s so easy to guard us,” George said on NBCSN after the close win. “Teams are just loading up and watching us play one-on-one.”
“Teams are going to try to muddy games up, they are going to figure out ways to slow us down. If we can get easy transition baskets to give us a little breathing room, a little separation, that’s what this tournament is about,” George said. “As good as we are in the halfcourt, that’s not going to win enough games for us.”
The United States’ lack of ball movement stood in stark contrast to that of the Serbians, and it almost cost them against an inferior squad that made up for what it lacked in talent with feistiness and preparation.
Jokić will (deservedly) get the majority of the shine after this one, but his teammates deserve credit as well. Teodosicć led the charge on the preparation and selflessness front, while Raduljica brought the grit.
Raduljica’s gleeful trolling led to DeAndre Jordan picking up a technical foul in the first half after the Serbian big man punched him below the belt on one possession and pushed him in midair on another. He stared down the United States’ players after dunks and was happy to hit them with screen after screen. Foul trouble benched him for the majority of the second half, but his antics played a major role in keeping Serbia in the game until Jokić went en fuego.
A game like that leads to the question: How good is Serbia? Their 1-3 record puts them in fourth place in Group A, meaning they would likely play Lithuania in the first game of the knockout round if the standings hold.
The 3-0 Lithuanians are no pushover, but neither is the United States. If Serbia can execute as well as they did on Friday in the knockout round, Friday’s contest showed that anything can happen in one game.
Two other things we learned:
The U.S. women can still count on their veterans:
Unlike their male counterparts, the U.S. women’s basketball team isn’t likely to see a lot of tight games. On Saturday we learned that when they do see one, they’re going to go with experience in their lineup. The team revealed as much in their 81-51 win over Canada, which was a lot closer early on than the final score would indicate.
Not blowing everyone out from end to end isn’t even totally a bad thing, according to Diana Taurasi. The U.S. starting shooting guard recently shared her thoughts on how close games can help a team.
“Those are the games that make you better in the long run,” Taurasi told Marc Stein of ESPN after the men’s team’s competitive game with Australia. “It’s just experience and you put it in the bank. And down the line they’re going to benefit from that.”
On Friday it made Taurasi better in the short term, too. The United States was only up 18-16 after going down early against the Canadians, and they went to two of their older players to dig them out. The fearless 34-year old drained four of her five three-point attempts on the day, and the U.S. went on to win the second quarter 18-6.
Taurasi may think close games can help a team, but her play made it clear she wasn’t particularly interested in playing in one. Her ability to effortlessly shake loose from a defense that should be focused on stopping her remains unparalleled. When those involuntary extras in her highlight reel do recover, it’s just in time to not affect Taurasi’s lightning quick release in the slightest.
She got some help from fellow national team stalwart Sue Bird. The 35-year-old veteran didn’t score on three shots, making her the only player on the squad without a point, but she kept the ball moving for a Team USA that isn’t lacking players who can fill it up. Bird racked up nine assists for her efforts, finding Taurasi in transition with vision and speed that bordered on precognitive.
The game was effectively over after that second-quarter storm, and Bird and Taurasi got to rest up. The Americans’ supreme talent means they won’t have to take over every game — but when the going gets tough, the U.S. can go to their veterans.
Australia is the clear No. 2 in this tournament:
No Andrew Bogut, no problem for the Boomers in their 93-68 drubbing of China on Friday morning. Bogut has been one of the most impactful players for Australia in Rio, averaging 14 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, but the team opted to rest him with a knee injury.
It should be noted here that China is not very good, but Australia still deserves credit for so easily brushing off the absence of one of their best players. Aron Baynes filled in admirably for Bogut with an efficient 12 points on eight shots, demonstrating Australia’s depth in the frontcourt with two starting-quality centers (Baynes typically starts next to Bogut, but both are best at the five).
Also of note for Australia was Ryan Broekhoff finally finding his shot. So far in the tournament the backup wing appeared unable to throw a rock in the proverbial ocean even if placed on one of Rio’s many beaches, making only one of his nine three-point attempts heading into the game against China. He doubled that total Friday in nearly half of the attempts, going 2-of-5.
This is a promising development for Australia, because if Broekhoff is on then it allows the Boomers to play small down the stretch in a potential rematch with the United States. The Americans (especially Carmelo Anthony) abused Baynes when he played at the four in their first game, and Broekhoff’s emergence could allow Australia to avoid a repeat performance.
That matters because right now Australia looks like a lock to finish second in Group A, meaning they would avoid a showdown with the Americans until the gold medal game. Getting there is no guarantee, with teams like Lithuania, Croatia, or possibly Spain having something to say about who ultimately makes it there. Australia looks like as good of a bet as any, though, which is a pleasant surprise for a team whose camaraderie and chemistry have been one of the fun surprises of the tournament.
Final Scores
Men’s Basketball
Australia 93, China 68
France 96, Venezuela 56
Women’s Basketball
Serbia 80, China 72
Spain 97, Senegal 43
