Olympic basketball scores 2016: Can Spain make some noise in the knockout round?

After their first two games of play in Rio, Spain would have been a lock for any list rounding up the biggest disappointments of the tournament so far. The presumptive medal contender’s first two losses were of the heartbreaking variety. Croatia’s Dario Šarić obliterated Pau Gasol’s game-tying layup attempt to hand the Spanish their first defeat, and then a last-second tip-in by Brazil’s Marcus Vinicius Marquinhos gave them a second one.

It looked like the elder Gasol brother’s (likely) final Olympics were set to end in ignominious fashion, but then Spain bounced back. They beat Nigeria by nine, and followed that up with a 109-59 drubbing of the previously undefeated Lithuanians. The Spanish weren’t out of the woods yet, as a loss to Argentina would have left them tied with Brazil for fourth place in Group B with the home country holding the tiebreaker by virtue of their close win.

The Spanish made sure that earlier defeat didn’t come back to bite them with they wrapped up group play on Monday with a 92-73 win over Argentina. The win guaranteed them a spot in the elimination round, but the question still remains: Just how good is Spain?

Gasol continues his run as the engine that makes Spain run. While he’s looked a little stale in some areas (defense most notably) he still hasn’t passed the proverbial “sell by” date and looks primed to power the Spanish in the elimination round. Gasol averaged 19.4 points per game on 53.6 percent shooting in group play, and has even flashed a bit of range by knocking down nine of his 15 three-point attempts so far.

Fortunately for the Spanish stalwart, the absence of his brother Marc hasn’t left him as the lone source of talent for the team, or even the frontcourt. Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic has acquitted himself well in Rio after a mixed sophomore season in the NBA, averaging 11.8 points on 50 percent shooting, converting 66.7 percent of his two-pointers.

The team’s two Sergios, Llull and Rodriguez, have kept the ball moving with 3.8 and 4.8 assists per game, respectively. They’ve done so efficiently, as has Spain as a whole, averaging the second fewest turnovers of any team. This has allowed Spain’s egalitarian offense to score the fourth most points of the tournament thus far on the fifth highest field goal percentage.

The Spaniard’s three-point shooting percentage (38.2), ranks as the second highest success rate of any team, credibly spacing the floor for Gasol and Mirotic to operate in the paint. Rudy Fernandez has led the way in that department, scoring 11.4 points per game while knocking down 41.7 percent of his threes.

All of that sounds good, and Spain’s defense has also been okay so far. The Spanish won’t blow anyone away on that end, but the team’s discipline further demonstrates the value of their continuity. However, the argument that Spain’s stopping power might be overstated is the mental image of Gasol being forced to defend in space. Now picture it during the fourth quarter of a tight game. It’s not pretty.

A match-up with Group A’s own wild card, France, sounds about right to figure out whether or not Spain is the team from their two close losses, or the one from their three wins.

The U.S. may be struggling, but teams still aren’t lining up to play them. With a win on Monday, the Croatians locked up the second seed instead of the dreaded fourth, where they would have faced the United States in their first elimination game.

Croatia started out the game playing catch-up, but behind 13 points from soon-to-be Philadelphia 76ers rookie Dario Saric (who finished with 18 points on 12 shots), they were able to take a 47-41 lead over the Lithuanians heading into the second half.

Brooklyn Nets guard Bojan Bogdanovic took things from there, exploding for 14 of his 22 points in the third quarter, knocking down all three of his attempts from behind the arc. Bogdanovic’s explosion was part of a team effort for Croatia, who hit 82 percent of their threes through three quarters (finishing at 58 percent) to take a 20 point lead into the final frame.

Croatia’s hail of threes slowed in the final period as Lithuania cut the lead to six with under a minute to go, but Croatia got a free-throw from Saric, followed by a dunk from Bogdanovic to answer, allowing Croatia to hold on for a 90-81 win.

Lithuania’s loss means they’ll play Australia in the first round of elimination (and avoid the United States until the possible gold medal game). The Croatians delayed any possible showdown with the U.S. for a round, but if they can continue their hot shooting for a few more games, the United States’ abysmal defense could give them a shot against the Americans anyway.

NBA teams unveil new wrinkles in the playoffs all the time, and it looks like the Rio Olympics will be no different. The first sign came during the United States’ near loss to Australia. The Boomers almost beat the U.S. anyway, but they strangely elected to play Aron Baynes down the stretch instead of downsizing, despite Carmelo Anthony erupting whenever Baynes was in at the four.

This might have come off as just a rotation decision that looked poor in hindsight if there hadn’t been leaks from the Australians’ side that the team might be keeping a few tricks up their sleeve:

They may not be the only ones holding a few things back. The United States have barely played Draymond Green at center (his most effective position last year) and mostly used hockey style five-man line changes. Could Coach K be saving a few lineups for knockout play?

Argentina lost to Spain on Monday, but the team never seemed totally hellbent on winning with their spot in the elimination round secure, instead opting to throw in the towel early and rest veterans down the stretch. According to the broadcast, the team reportedly only decided to even play several of their starters at the last minute.

That chicanery backfired when Croatia upset Lithuania in the last game of the day, meaning Argentina would drop to the fourth seed and face Team USA in the quarterfinals. On the flip side, if there is any team that the U.S. should be wary of overlooking in international play, it’s the immortal Argentinian Golden Generation who upset them in Athens 12 years ago.

All of this could also be over-speculating or posturing by the teams. If it’s not, then we may be getting a few fresh looks from squads in the elimination rounds.

Brazil 86, Nigeria 69

Spain 92, Argentina 73

Lithuania 90, Croatia 81