Russell Wilson could have been the MVP this year, but the Seahawks let him down

Russell Wilson entered the 2016 season with the second-best odds to win NFL MVP, tied with Cam Newton (+800) and behind Aaron Rodgers (+485). Watching those odds change throughout the year reflected just how up-and-down his season was.

Wilson was fourth (+1000) after Week 3, a win against the San Francisco 49ers in which he sprained his knee. He was eighth (+2000) after getting hammered behind a bad offensive line for two straight games after Week 7. He climbed back up to second in the midst of the Seahawks’ three-game winning streak (+350), but then he tumbled to eighth (+3300) by the end of the regular season.

The initial hype was justified. Wilson closed the 2015 season as well as anybody. Over the last seven games of the regular season, he threw 24 touchdowns to just one interception and compiled a 132.8 passer rating.

Wilson had help when he was playing that well, however. The Seahawks also averaged 152 rushing yards and gave up 14 points per game during that stretch. Wilson was outstanding, but he might not have been the MVP of his own team that season — which is not to knock him. The Seahawks were the No. 1 team in DVOA for good reason.

This season, the Seahawks apparently felt that Wilson was ready to handle the load on his own. They began the season with five starters along the offensive line who would have been backups with most other franchises. Seattle, it seems, knows how to draft Pro Bowlers at every position except along the offensive front.

To make up for the talent deficit, offensive line coach Tom Cable made do with cheap veteran free agents over the years. The Seahawks’ frugality caught up with them during the season, however, as offensive linemen went down with injuries.

On Saturday, we got a great glimpse of how bad things have been all season. Rookie offensive guard Rees Odhiambo, playing in place of Germain Ifedi, another rookie, stepped on Wilson’s foot and sent his quarterback falling on his butt for an embarrassing safety.

Wilson was hurried on 18 of 39 dropbacks (via Pro Football Focus), hit seven times, and sacked three times. The Falcons have a sensational pass rusher in Vic Beasley, but they were a middling pass rushing team overall with 34 sacks during the regular season. The Seahawks were overwhelmed anyway. Wilson was occasionally able to get out of trouble with his legs, but the Falcons never let him get loose and frequently punished him if he went beyond the line of scrimmage.

It’d be easy to look at Wilson’s numbers — 17-of-30, 225 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions — and say he played poorly, but that would downplay just how badly the offensive line played. This has been a problem all season.

Wilson’s numbers are almost directly correlated to his protection. The Seahawks’ three-game winning streak, which included a road win against the New England Patriots, was the offensive line’s most cohesive stretch. Wilson threw six touchdowns and zero interceptions during that span.

Then the Seahawks had to go to their fourth different offensive line combination of the season in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because of an injury to center Justin Britt. Wilson was sacked six times in that game and has been largely running for his life since. He threw nine interceptions and just five touchdowns over his next four games.

That Patriots game was the height of Wilson’s MVP chances, and there’s no question that he earned those odds. The Seahawks’ win at Gillette Stadium — the Pats’ only loss this season with Tom Brady at quarterback — was as good as any this season, and they did it while giving up 24 points and rushing for a pedestrian 96 yards. Wilson powered that win, passing for 348 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

With only adequate protection and defensive backing, Wilson can produce like one of the best players in the NFL. Unfortunately for him, the line was unsteady all season, and the defense took a significant downturn after safety Earl Thomas broke his leg.

That was Wilson’s — and ultimately, the Seahawks’ — biggest problem: He had no room for error. The Seahawks were unable to keep significant players on the field, and their replacements were much worse. And when Wilson was tasked with making up the difference, he wasn’t quite good enough to do it.

Wilson is one of the best players in the NFL, period. There are few quarterbacks you could confidently say are better: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and ... 2016 Matt Ryan? An argument for anyone else would be largely academic. But being in that echelon doesn’t mean he is capable of taking on an onslaught.

This season was perhaps Wilson’s most trying yet. He had huge expectations heaped upon him from the outside and from within the Seahawks organization. He was entrusted to carry the team on his own. Sometimes he did, but the fact that he couldn’t do it consistently should signal to the Seahawks that their incredible young quarterback needs some help next season.