Bullpens are going to decide the 2017 World Series, but we already knew that

In 1981, the pennant-winning New York Yankees played only 107 games because of the strike. This meant that their most worked starting pitcher was Rudy May, who threw 147 ⅔ innings.

In 2017, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers both nearly won 107 games. Between the two of them, they combined for exactly zero pitchers who threw more than 175 innings.

These are the only three World Series teams in Major League Baseball history that didn’t feature at least one starting pitcher who threw more than 175 innings for them. The strike-year Yankees are one of them. The two teams playing in the 2017 World Series are the other two. If you disqualify the strike-year Yankees, which you should, this isn’t just the first time two teams like this have matched up with each other in the World Series. It’s the first time teams like this have been in the World Series.

There are caveats. Clayton Kershaw threw exactly 175 innings, and that’s only because of his back problems. Justin Verlander threw 206 innings this year, but he doesn’t qualify for this tidbit because just 34 of them were with the Astros. Goalposts have been moved in service of my point.

That overall point stands, though. Everyone who’s watched a postseason since 2014 knows that October is different now; that it’s a month for bullpens and quick hooks now. What the Astros and Dodgers are suggesting is that it isn’t just October. Sure, that’s the month when All-Star starters can get yanked in the third inning at the first hint of trouble. But the trend is fewer innings from everyone, full stop, all year long. These World Series teams are perhaps the best example of this trend.

Consider the humble quality start: six innings pitched; three runs or fewer. As a stat, it’s simple, quick, dirty, and effective. I kind of like it. And it makes sense that the Washington Nationals had the most quality starts, with 13 more than second place, considering they were really good. Four out of the top five teams in quality starts made the postseason. (The outlying team was the Giants, who were a bunch of weirdos in six dozen other ways, too.) There is most certainly an advantage to be found with a starting rotation that can eat innings effectively.

Yet the Astros and Dodgers were tied for 15th in baseball in quality starts, right there in the middle of the pack, just below the Blue Jays and Tigers, just ahead of the Phillies and Orioles. The Astros and Dodgers are teams built around Cy Young winners, but they’re also teams that aren’t built around the quality start, which is something of a paradox. Both teams won 100 games with strong rotations, but both teams weren’t shy about mixing and matching with their relievers when injuries or game situations dictated.

Now we’re here in the World Series, the land of the scheduled off days, regular rest, and no tomorrows. This would seem to be the logical conclusion, the end result of everything these teams have been planning all along. They’re not tethered to the quality start. These are the Johnny Wholestaffs of the baseball world, willing to use whomever, whenever. Between the two of them, they combined for 29 relievers who struck out at least a batter an inning this season. They’ve culled through those ranks, and now they’re going to present their best seven or eight relievers.

This is the part where you point out that the Dodgers’ bullpen is trending upward and that the Astros’ bullpen is something of a bear market. That is all true, but there’s something that’s important to remember: The Dodgers are making this shit up as they go along, too.

It’s true! Ignore the Dodgers’ anchor at the back end, the closest analog to Mariano Rivera that we’ll probably see for the next 30 years, and focus on everyone else. They’re just making this up. Sergio Romo was supposed to be a part of the plan. Chris Hatcher pitched in 26 games for the Dodgers. Grant Dayton was a revelation for them last year, and he was supposed to thrive this year. Pedro Baez was the late-inning magician until he wasn’t.

But the Dodgers made shit up as they went along. Brandon Morrow had a 7.20 ERA in Oklahoma City? Screw it, bring him up; he’s brilliant now. Josh Fields entered June with an 0.84 ERA, but there were crooked numbers in his future, and he hit rough patches along the way? Screw it, he’s perfect in the postseason now, so step aside. Kenta Maeda was basically Trevor Williams or Miguel Gonzalez this year, which is a polite way of saying not very exciting? Screw it, he’s a dominant setup man now, which is his final form and true destiny.

The Astros, meanwhile are a tangled mess of Chris Devenski and Luke Gregerson. Ken Giles is their anchor, and he might be good for two innings in an elimination or clinching game, but not regularly. They missed out on Zach Britton when the Orioles were weird, which led them to Francisco Liriano, which wasn’t as clever of a move as it looked at the time.

What the Astros need to do, then, is make this up as they go along. Use the analytics and scouting and coaching like a smart, functional team, of course, but don’t be afraid to look for their own Kenta Maedas and Brandon Morrows. Is Brad Peacock the burgeoning hero? He’s struck out four of the 10 batters he’s faced this postseason, after all. Is it Devenski, who was compared to Andrew Miller by Travis Sawchik at FanGraphs earlier in the year? Or is it an unexpected twist, someone like Lance McCullers and his dancing curveballs, pulled out of the rotation to save the day?

Which is all to say: The story of these bullpens hasn’t been written yet. We’re just a few days into the idea of Maeda as a late-inning force. We’re just a couple of months into the idea that Morrow was still one of the most dominant arms of his absurd draft class. The small samples are swirling, and the Dodgers have sifted through the Daytons and Romos to present the most effective possible bullpen for your viewing pleasure. It doesn’t have to be canon just yet, though. Those 30 innings since the end of the regular season have been transcendent, but they don’t have to be the new normal.

At the same time, the Astros’ bullpen struggles, even if they started in the second half, don’t have to be a given. There can still be a Morrow in that tangled mess of high-strikeout arms they’re considering for their World Series roster. There can be a Maeda, reinventing himself out of nowhere at the perfect time. And it has to work for just four to seven games — that’s it.

Both teams could just make everything a little easier by getting seven- and eight-inning outings from the various Cy Young winners and finalists they employ, but these are teams built for the bullpen by design. Verlander helps the Astros, but he can’t affect the 45 to 50 innings he doesn’t pitch in this series, and the same goes for Kershaw on the other side. These are teams that have been willing to ease up on their starters when it’s suited them. This is the best possible month for that kind of philosophy, and it seems like the Dodgers have the upper hand.

When it comes to four, five, six, or seven games, though, I’m not sure if we know a whole lot. The Dodgers’ bullpen is up, and the Astros’ bullpen is down. Both of them worked pretty hard to make this a bullpen World Series, and we think we know how it’s going to go.

We really don’t know how it’s going to go. That’s probably the best part.