Which struggling NHL team should be more worried: the Rangers or Canadiens?

In a few days, the Rangers and Canadiens will meet at the Bell Centre for a game where, thankfully, one of them will win. The weekend summit between two NHL teams that have left their fans sweating early this season will surely come with a lot of handwringing over which is more likely to get back on track.

New York and Montreal are two of the biggest fan bases in hockey, and they’ve had a lot to say while their teams stumbled early this season. The Rangers and Habs were supposed to be potential contenders, but they’re currently last in their respective divisions. The pressure is building in those markets to start winning or make changes.

Saturday will be ground zero for that growing tension, and a victory would be a step in the right direction for either team. The good news, for both clubs, is that we’re still early enough in the season that things can change quickly. After all, last year’s Canadiens started 13-1-1, then went 34-25-8 afterwards. The first few weeks aren’t necessarily indicative of a team’s destiny.

But there are very real reasons for concern with the Rangers and Canadiens, who have two of the worst goal differentials in the league this season. With that in mind, let’s look at the pair of struggling Eastern Conference teams, and which one might be more likely to break out of its funk.

The record: 2-6-2, -11 goal differential

What’s gone right: Not a whole lot, but it’s worth noting the Rangers are 12th in goals for and 12th in power play rate. Their offense has been respectable, and it might have room for further improvement, too.

For example, Mika Zibanejad has just one assist in 10 games, and he’s spent a lot of time with Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich, who are shooting a combined 3.8 percent this season. That figure should go up, and Zibanejad’s point production with it. Over the past three seasons, Alain Vigneault’s teams shot between 9.6 and 10.4 percent. This season, the Rangers are at 7.7 percent, so there’s a good chance that won’t last.

The defense has had a lot more issues, but Ryan McDonagh has played relatively well as the top blue liner. The Rangers have posted a 54.3 percent 5-on-5 Corsi with him on the ice, and they’ve taken 61.9 percent of high-danger scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. He hasn’t gotten much of a chance with Kevin Shattenkirk yet, so it’s hard not to wonder whether that pairing could be the dominant one New York needs, even if it’s at the expense of spreading out talent a bit more.

The Rangers are also third in the NHL in penalty differential at plus-10, according to Corsica Hockey.

What’s gone wrong: Just about everything that wasn’t included above. A few forwards have played well, and McDonagh still looks like a good top-pairing defenseman, but the rest of the team has been a mess. They’re 22nd in penalty killing, 26th in save percentage, and 29th in venue- and score-adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi.

Over at Blueshirt Banter, SB Nation’s Rangers blog, a lot of blame has been directed at the coaching staff, which notably added former Stars coach Lindy Ruff over the summer, for a team that looks less than prepared.

Right now, we’re watching five individuals play hockey at a time, and not a team. The Rangers might have some coherence if the coaching staff helped teach them, and the coaching staff might understand coherence if management led by example and showed them what that means. Right now, the New York Rangers need to decide what kind of team they are – one that’s rebuilding or one that’s contending, one that’s a collective unit playing high-speed hockey or just a group of guys who are each skating fast in different directions.

There’s also the matter of Henrik Lundqvist, the $8.5 million goalie, who hasn’t exactly signaled that he’s going to rebound from a down year. The 35-year-old has a .900 save percentage and 3.11 goals allowed average over nine starts. Both of those numbers would surpass the career-worst marks he set last season.

And no goaltender in the league has played more than Lundqvist after the Rangers traded backup Antti Raanta to the Coyotes over the summer. Ondrej Pavelec, with his .899 save percentage since the start of the 2015-16 season, doesn’t seem like much of a solution there. The Rangers will need to be careful not to overwork their aging star goalie this season considering he’s already waking up “with some discomfort.”

The record: 1-6-1, -20 goal differential

What’s gone right: Surely you’ve heard it already. The Canadiens’ success at generating shot attempts and limiting opposing shot attempts stands out for a team that’s struggled so badly. They’re seventh in 5-on-5 Corsi (53.8 percent) and ninth when adjusted for venue and score (51.6 percent), per Natural Stat Trick.

Those are usually indicators of a team that’s going to have success at 5-on-5, yet Montreal is dead last with a goal differential of minus-16. It’s indicative of the fact that offense in hockey is usually a product of both shot volume and shot quality. The Habs may have success in the former, but they’re clearly struggling in the latter. Still, history shows teams that that unusual shoot low percentages in October always see some improvement.

The reality is that Montreal is neither as bad as its raw goal production, nor as good as its shot attempt differential. According to Corsica Hockey, the Canadiens are actually 15th in the NHL with an expected goal percentage, which adjusts for shot location, type, etc., at 49.96 percent. At least in that statistic, the indication is that Montreal is closer to an average team than what we’ve seen so far.

What’s gone wrong: Well ... literally everything other than shot attempt distribution? Montreal is 31st in shooting percentage, 29th in save percentage, 28th on the power play, and 24th on the penalty kill. Jonathan Drouin leads the team with five points. The Blackhawks’ Ryan Hartman had that many in his first game.

Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw, and Max Pacioretty, four of their top scorers last season, have combined for three goals. Whatever adjustments Claude Julien has made so far this season, they haven’t worked yet. On Monday, Galchenyuk, a former 30-goal scorer and top-three draft pick, was skating on the fourth line in practice.

The Canadiens have been better than their paltry offensive production would suggest, but that’s not going to fix the issue of goaltending. Like with New York and Lundqvist, Montreal will be waiting anxiously for the old Carey Price to return. He’s posted a .881 save percentage in seven games, which hasn’t helped anyone.

It might be too early in the season to definitively make a statement about either team, but the Rangers and Canadiens have given their fans reasons to be worried early on. In both cases, it’s fair to say that these teams have a long way to go before they stand any chance of making a run for the Stanley Cup.

But if we’re talking about which team is more likely to turn around and at least get to the playoffs, the Canadiens may have an easier path. Their star goalie is more likely to rebound given his age and recent performance, and their superior 5-on-5 shot attempt numbers should give them more room to improve. Nobody shoots below four percent all season.

GM Marc Bergevin also has nearly $7 million in cap space to work with, per Cap Friendly, which gives the team flexibility to make a major acquisition before the trade deadline if the price is right. The Rangers have less than $2 million in cap space, so major reinforcements aren’t as likely to arrive.

Both Montreal and New York, not to mention their fans, didn’t expect to be here when the season began. But as we await the primetime meeting between these two teams on Saturday night, it’ll be interesting to see which one can take another step toward getting back on the rails.