7 reasons the Jazz are in deep trouble with Rudy Gobert injured

Rudy Gobert has a bone bruise that will keep him out of the Utah Jazz lineup for four to six weeks. The Jazz could not afford injuries like this in the past, and the Jazz can especially not afford an injury like this now. Gobert is easily Utah’s best player, the anchor of its elite defense, and the best finisher on the team.

Utah has struggled to adjust to roster changes this season. The struggle is about to get even more real. The Jazz were 5-7 before Gobert’s injury; the team beat Brooklyn on Saturday to move to 6-7, a half-game out of the No. 8 seed. But there are numerous serious indications that this injury — and the hole it will leave Utah in — could spell the end of its playoff dreams.

Here are those reasons. Sorry, Utah.

That Rudy Gobert has an outsized impact on Utah’s success in recent years is no secret. But because Gordon Hayward was also very good and important, Gobert’s unique importance to the Jazz is sometimes forgotten.

Last season, the Jazz were +7.6 per 48 minutes with Gobert on the floor, per NBA.com. The Jazz were -4.6 per 48 minutes with Gobert off the floor. Luckily for Utah, Gobert played 81 games. As a result (and because Utah had a strong roster overall), the Jazz won 51 games.

During the 2015-16 season, the Jazz were +3.7 points per 48 minutes with Gobert on the floor and -0.1 with him on the bench. Gobert missed 21 games, and the Jazz went 40-42 and narrowly missed the playoffs.

This year’s on-off impacts have been screwy to date, but there is a record to suggest that the Jazz are substantially worse without Gobert on the court.

Once Hayward signed with the Celtics, everyone figured Utah’s struggles this season would come on offense. Hayward’s versatility and playmaking kept an average Jazz offense afloat much of last season. George Hill’s steady hand had a big role, too. But it’s been worse than even the biggest skeptics could have imagined.

The Jazz are currently No. 27 in offensive rating, ahead of only the Lakers, Kings, and Bulls. There are only two other teams in the bottom 10 in offense with legitimate designs on a playoff spot, the 76ers (No. 21) and Heat (No. 24). Those teams play in the East, at least.

Ricky Rubio has been especially erratic as Hill’s replacement — we’ll get to him soon. Rodney Hood was tabbed by many as a potential Hayward stand-in; he, too, is shooting less than 40 percent. Donovan Mitchell is a rookie and looks like it on offense despite flashes of excellence. Joe Johnson is injured. Joe Ingles, who was paid well this summer, is doing exactly what you expect Joe Ingles to do; the Jazz just happen to need more right now.

There are no answers for this problem that don’t involve Rubio and Hood simply playing much, much more efficiently. But given the incredible lack of scoring options, that’s far easier said than done.

One upside from Gobert’s injury is that we should have more Ekpe Udoh back in our lives. Quin Snyder has to decide whether to start Udoh in place of Gobert or shift Derrick Favors to center and go smaller with Thabo Sefolosha in the starting five. (Sefolosha started in Gobert’s place Saturday in a win over the Nets.) In either case, Favors and Udoh should see bigger roles.

The problem is that neither is a scorer. Gobert is a finisher, not a creator. That applies to Favors and Udoh, too. Ironically, Utah could use a player like Enes Kanter right about now.

Last season’s excellent Jazz defense starred a strong shot defense and top-notch defensive rebounding. That is a good, common, and solid foundation for a half-court, slow-down team with some creative scorers.

This year’s Jazz defense has also been quite good: it sits at No. 3 in the league as Gobert exits. But it’s working in a different way than the edition Gobert and Hill anchored. This season, the shot defense and defensive rebounding have been average, but the turnover creation has been excellent. That’s what you’ll typically find for a good fast-break team, something the Jazz are not.

The turnover creation is a positive improvement, but you wonder if it’s a touch of fool’s gold based on gambles by Rubio and Hood. If opponents adjust and the Jazz can’t improve their shot defense and rebounding to last year’s levels — hard to imagine without Gobert — the defense could sink far enough to sink Utah entirely.

Rubio has simply not been a good fit in Utah. The Jazz traded for him knowing George Hill was likely to leave and hoping dearly Hayward would stay. Alas. Rubio is taking more threes than ever despite not actually being able to consistently hit threes. He’s averaging nearly four turnovers per game and, because of those errant threes, has an effective field goal percentage of just .438. Only nine players averaging at least 10 field goal attempts per game are less efficient; four are rookies.

There is a scoring hole on the Jazz, and Rubio is completely unequipped to fill it.

Going into the season, there appeared to be eight teams fighting for four playoff seeds in the middle of the Western Conference. That has mainly held up, though the Thunder have slipped down from the lead four we all believe it to certainly be in.

Right now, Utah is already No. 9 in the conference. The margin of error for being in or out is likely to again be a matter of a game or two. You simply cannot dig a real hole and expect to climb out in time for April.

The Jazz have played a schedule of average strength so far, but it’s been home-heavy with nine at home and four on the road. Utah has 14 games in the next four weeks, evenly split between home and the road.

But the home games have plenty of peril: The Wolves, Bucks, Nuggets, Pelicans, Wizards, and Rockets are all coming to Salt Lake City while Gobert is expected to be sidelined. The only non-playoff contender coming is Chicago.

The road opponents are mostly in the East and, in related news, weaker overall. But Utah is 0-4 on the road this season, and the Knicks, Sixers, and Magic are all downright frisky.

If Gobert ends up missing six weeks, that leaves him out of a brutal stretch for the Jazz: A road trip starring the Bucks, Bulls, Celtics, Cavaliers, Rockets, and Thunder, followed by the Spurs and Thunder in SLC, followed by games in Denver and Oakland. That’s two brutal weeks the Jazz might not survive with their best player, let alone without him.

Come back soon, Rudy. Your team desperately needs you.