Sergey Kovalev is making his return to the ring Saturday, hoping to recover from his first career losses at the hands of Andre Ward. He’ll be in action against Vyacheslav Shabranskyy, live on HBO for the vacant WBO Light Heavyweight Championship.
Kovalev vs. Shabranskyy picks: Experts taking the safe route
Most think Sergey Kovalev will regain his form against Vyacheslav Shabranskyy when they face off Saturday.
It promises to be an excited card overall, with Sullivan Barrera vs. Felix Valera and Jason Sosa vs. Robinson Castellanos on the televised portion of the card.
Kovalev is fighting for the first time since he lost a pair of fights against Ward. He now sits at 30-2-1, still one of the absolute best boxers in the world, but coming off a TKO at the hands of Ward. The first fight was close, with many thinking Kovalev won it, but with an eighth-round finish, Ward claimed his spot as the top boxer in the division.
There has been a lot of the blame game from Kovalev’s camp. The 34-year-old has beaten a slew of top competitors, but at the end of the day “top competitors” in this division includes a lot of people who could be considered also-rans. But Ward has called it a career, retiring at the age of 33, so is Kovalev now the best light heavyweight in the sport?
On paper, it seems that way, with guys like Adonis Stevenson and Badou Jack his only real competition in that realm. The Shabranskyy fight should tell us a lot about where Kovalev is and where he goes from here while still not being a squash match. Shabranskyy has one loss on his record, to Barrera, and while he’s the underdog, there is some danger here for Kovalev.
There’s no pick from the folks over at Bad Left Hook, but they gave the matchup a B-minus grade and had this to say:
Matchup Grade: B-. I’m higher on this one than some are, I suspect, because of the mental aspect on Kovalev’s side. I think he could be vulnerable. If he is, we might get something memorable in a Shabranskyy upset. And if he’s not, then we see a rebirth for Kovalev. Both guys can bang and I don’t expect a dull affair.
Over at Bloody Elbow, they like Kovalev to take the win by unanimous decision, though they too wouldn’t be completely shocked by an upset for Shabranskyy.
I don’t trust Sergey Kovalev at this stage in his career, at all. He’s a bully style fighter, and often when you get someone who stands up to that bully, as Ward did, the bully folds. His comments since that fight, and particularly the idea that he’s blaming the losses on Jackson, only further my concern. I think the chances of us seeing Kovalev back at the top level form we saw before the Ward fights are slim. But is Shabranskyy the man to reveal those holes and upset him? Probably not - even a diminished Kovalev should be able to take this. An upset wouldn’t blow my mind, but I think we see Kovalev win here and the big story Monday morning being how he did not look particularly good in victory.
Prediction: Sergey Kovalev, UD
Kovalev should win, but a Shabranskyy upset wouldn’t be the most shocking thing to happen in boxing this year. Here at SB Nation, we’re going with the safe pick of Kovalev, though it all really depends on his mindset. If he’s at his best, Shabranskyy can’t touch him. If he’s shaken by his recent losses, then he’s toast.
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