3 reasons the Nashville Predators offense has gone from average to woeful

Struggling offenses have gotten a lot of attention during the first month of the NHL season with teams like the Canadiens and Oilers failing to turn their strong shot numbers into goals so far. When you play in Montreal or have Connor McDavid on your roster, the attention is going to be on another level.

But down in the states, there’s another team struggling badly on offense that hasn’t gotten much attention, which is odd considering it was in the Stanley Cup Final just a few months ago. No, we’re not talking about the Penguins, whose recent issues have been well-documented. We’re talking about the Predators, who quietly have the second-worst offense in the NHL this season.

Nashville is a defensive team first and foremost, and it’s an identity that’s existed for years. Ever since the emergence of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, the Predators have been built from the back. Now they have P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, as good a top four as any team in the league.

What made the difference for the 2016-17 Predators compared to past teams, however, was the emergence of the top line of Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson, and Filip Forsberg. Those three combined for 180 points and led Nashville to finishing 11th in goals per game during the regular season. Nashville was still built on defense, but it was at least above-average offensively, too.

Now a dozen games into this season, the Predators have dropped to 29th in goals per game despite another strong start from their star forwards. It’s no surprise the team is sixth in the Central Division with a 5-5-2 record. Remember, even last season with a solid offense, the team merely squeaked into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.

So the Predators weren’t great in the regular season before, and now they’re looking like a one-line team. It’ll be impossible for them to reach their potential with such a weak offense. What’s gone wrong?

Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Subban, and Josi have combined for more than half of the team’s 28 goals this season. If those guys aren’t scoring, then the offense is practically non-existent.

Only three other players on the roster have more than one goal. Kevin Fiala, who was supposed to be a key piece replacing James Neal, has zero goals and 13 shots in 11 games. They’ve tried Fiala on the first line briefly, but he hasn’t been able to find his groove as a scorer yet. (Neal, by the way, has seven goals with Vegas, which would lead Nashville. Just saying.)

There’s just not enough support behind the Predators’ top guys. Part of the issue is injuries, and getting Ellis and Nick Bonino back will be a boost. But this team lost three of its top nine scorers from last season in Neal, Mike Fisher, and Colin Wilson. It’s not readily apparent that they’ve found the right guys to fill those gaps, which is reflected in their teamwide numbers.

There are essentially two ways to create goals: Generate shot quantity, and generate shot quality. It’s difficult to succeed without a dose of both, so teams that struggle in both areas tend to struggle to score. The Predators were good at generating shots during 5-on-5 play in 2016-17: They finished eighth in shot attempts per 60 and third in shots on goal per 60, per Natural Stat Trick.

That’s gone away this season. Nashville has dropped to 14th in shot attempts per 60, but more worrisome, it’s fallen to 29th in shots on goal per 60. Less than 50 percent of the Predators’ shot attempts are converting into shots on goal, which is the second-lowest rate in the league ahead of the Bruins.

It’s a sign that, as a team, they’re struggling to get high shot quality along with their average shot quantity. Only three teams record fewer high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

So what’s the cause? Not enough shots in the slot, for one.

The most dangerous area to score in hockey is the slot area right in front of the net. The Predators haven’t been great at generating shots there over the past few years, but they’ve been particularly bad at it this season.

Here is their 2016-17 shot location heat map from HockeyViz. Red means they’re generating shots in that area above the average rate. Blue means they’re below the average rate:

And here is 2017-18. Notice the dark blue expanding around the slot:

The Predators are generating a lot more of their shots from the outside. That’s not a great recipe to score, and as we see in their numbers, it’s also led to a lower conversion of shot attempts into shots on goal. It’s a lot easier for defenders to block those long-range shots than a prime chance in the slot, so that makes sense.

OK, so it’s worth noting here that not everything is bad. The Predators’ offensive issues are at least being limited to even-strength play. On the power play, Nashville is seventh with a success rate of 23.1 percent. Nearly half (12 of 28) of its goals have come with the man advantage this season.

Forsberg has been dominant there in particular with five goals and two points on the power play. That’s more than half of his team-leading 13 points.

So the Predators have at least been able to prop up their offense to some degree with the power play. However, then you remember that even with a top-10 power play, the team is still just 29th in scoring. That’s how rough things have gotten when the team doesn’t have a man advantage.

The easiest answer is to get Ellis back into the lineup and see what that does. He was a revelation for Nashville last season with 38 points in 71 games, and the team has had to lean heavily on Alexei Emelin and Matt Irwin in his absence. Being able to get Ellis back into the top four, with Emelin demoted to the third pairing, could be just what the Predators need to open up their team attack.

Otherwise, it’s going to be about the secondary scorers getting more shots in tough areas. It’s too hard to win in today’s NHL with just one good line, and that’s all the Predators have right now.