If there’s a theme this week, it’s injuries. You don’t need me to rattle off the casualty list. But the latest one, Deshaun Watson, has a big impact on the Texans-Colts game this week. Houston’s still heavily favored. I’m not buying it.
NFL picks against the spread 2017, Week 9: Injuries keep changing the betting landscape
Injuries are making it that much harder to pick games. But that won’t stop us.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
All home teams are in caps. Odds come via OddsShark.
Safest bets
Lions (-2.5) over PACKERS
I can’t believe we’re living in a world where the Packers are actually underdogs at home to the Lions. Just a great season all around.
Ravens (+3.5) over TITANS
The thing to remember here is that the Titans needed overtime to beat the Browns in their last game. Joe Flacco is expected to play, not that he’s a huge boost for the Ravens offense, but he’s definitely got a slight edge over Ryan Mallett.
JAGUARS (-5) over Bengals
EAGLES (-8) over Broncos
SAINTS (-6.5) over Buccaneers
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Washington
The only thing that makes me a little more hesitant than normal about picking the Seahawks with ease in this game is that Earl Thomas is out this week. Still, it’s a safe bet that won’t be a huge problem against Washington. Oh, and Russell Wilson has a bona fide left tackle on his blindside now.
Difficult decisions
Rams (-3.5) over GIANTS
I usually hedge a little bit more with a West Coast team in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. But the Giants are not very good, in case you hadn’t noticed. Plus, they won’t have cornerback Janoris Jenkins this week; he’s been suspended by the team.
The Rams haven’t beaten the Giants in their last seven matchups. This is a year where all vestiges of the well-earned Rams tradition for fecklessness is being cast aside, so expect that 0-7 run to end this week.
COWBOYS (-2.5) over Chiefs
Ezekiel Elliott will play this week, thanks to the various machinations of the legal system and his suspension appeal. He hasn’t missed a game this season, yet the Cowboys are only 5-3 and scrambling to stay in the wild card race ... which is worth noting since Jerry Jones is basically bent on sabotaging Roger Goodell’s job and the future of the NFL over the whole damn thing (not to mention trying to use the other owners via the anthem issue to get his way ... Stephen White and I went in depth on the issue on the podcast this week).
Anyway. The real story here is a Chiefs defense that’s kinda not very good lately. It has got the second-worst rushing defense in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. Plus, it is giving up 27 or more points in every road game but one this season. Opposing No. 1 receivers are averaging more than 112 yards per game against them.
So why is this such a hard decision? Because it’s soul crushing to pick the Cowboys.
PANTHERS (+2) over Falcons
The visiting team is 2-7 against the spread in the last eight matchups between these two NFC South rivals. Neither one is very good at scoring points this season, which makes zero sense when you look at the rosters each offense boasts. But the Panthers have been very good defensively. And that should be too much for the Falcons, who are getting a lot more love than the Panthers from gamblers. Buck the trend.
Underdog picks for the adventurous gambler
Colts (+6.5) over TEXANS
This game opened with Houston as 11.5-point favorites. I can’t believe it wasn’t more than that. Deshaun Watson threw for four touchdowns against the Seahawks. There’s no telling how many he could’ve scored against the Colts. Probably more than Tom Savage. It’s shocking to see Houston still favored by almost a touchdown. There’s no Duane Brown on the left side to keep Statuesque Savage upright, even against a Colts defense that lacks umph.
Jadeveon Clowney will have field day. That’s not going to be enough, though.
49ERS (+2.5) over Cardinals
C.J. Beathard versus Drew Stanton. What a thriller. At least the 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo to turn to soon. The Cardinals have nothing.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) over Raiders
Two weeks, two games on the East Coast for the Raiders. At least this one isn’t a 1 p.m. start. It’s the Sunday night game, which is better for the Raiders but really sucks for the rest of us.
Anyway, Adam Gase wanted to send a message to his offense with the Jay Ajayi trade. I’m sure quarterback Jay Cutler will drive home the point of no person being bigger than the team and all that mumbo jumbo.
