How the Disney-Fox deal could impact NBA fans

The entertainment and media industries are in the middle of a double earthquake, shaking what we know about that world to its core. The death of net neutrality may forever change how we access content and each other over the internet. What content is available via the internet as we continue to move away from hardwired cable to streaming services, however, could be just as greatly impacted by Disney’s deal to buy a wide swath of 21st Century Fox.

Included in that purchase is Fox Sports Networks, the group of 22 regional sports networks that collectively carry 17 NBA teams’ locally broadcast games. (The networks also carry 15 Major League Baseball teams’ games and 13 National Hockey League teams’ games, as well as games for four WNBA teams, one MLS team, and a number of college programs.) Fox Sports Networks is the most valuable piece of Disney’s purchase, according to analysis cited by the Los Angeles Times.

If the federal government approves Disney’s purchase — there is no indication it is at risk — ESPN (a Disney subsidiary) would effectively own not just national rights to a number of NBA games during the season plus half of playoff games and the NBA Finals, but the local rights to more than half of the league.

This is going to change things. Maybe not immediately. But this will change things.

First things first. Here are the teams whose games are locally broadcast on a regional Fox Sports Network: the Nets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers, Bucks, Hawks, Hornets, Heat, Magic, Timberwolves, Thunder, Clippers, Suns, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Spurs.

We have no idea what ESPN’s strategy with the actual regional sports networks will be. ESPN has no regional sports networks currently. The Fox networks show live games, but those make up only a fraction of the available hours. Will existing regional programming continue? Will ESPN simulcast ESPN Radio shows to soak up hours, rebroadcast day-old ESPN studio shows like PTI, or invest in new local-focused content? Bet on the cheapest route.

But those off hours are the least important to both ESPN and, to be honest, fans. What matters is how the games are presented.

Again, this is going to change things. But exactly how and when remains to be seen.

ESPN happens to be launching its own independent over-the-top service in 2018. With a subscription, viewers will be able to stream live sports broadcasts and ESPN programming without a cable subscription. This is what makes this coming service different than the WatchESPN app many viewers currently use: Full access to live sports on WatchESPN requires a cable subscription. Future viewers will be able to pay ESPN a monthly fee to stream some — and perhaps eventually all — of the live sports that they’d otherwise need a cable subscription for (or access to ESPN through a bundle packager like Sling TV).

The best-case scenario for NBA fans is that all these games currently available on Fox Sports Networks will become available through that ESPN streaming service.

For fans of the 17 NBA teams currently showing local games on a local Fox Sports regional broadcaster, that would be a game-changer: You’d potentially be able to cancel your cable subscription and still gain access to your team’s games through the ESPN service.

In such a scenario, NBA fans of those teams would also potentially have access to any games on ESPN and ABC through this app, plus half the playoffs and the NBA Finals. You would just need access to Turner Sports for TNT exclusives like the All-Star Game and its portion of the playoffs to fulfill your NBA needs. (TNT is currently available through a couple of different over-the-top bundlers.)

It’s hard to overstate how impactful increased over-the-top game broadcast availability can be for sports fans in many markets, especially those who are expat fans. If you’re a Mavericks fan living in Atlanta or a Timberwolves fan in L.A., it’s basically impossible to see your team’s local games without buying the pricey — and buggy — NBA League Pass package. Even fans using Sling TV or other over-the-top bundles only see games from their local Fox Sports network and end up paying for channels they may not want.

The NBA’s last national TV deal was bonkers.

Why? Fox was competing with ESPN and Turner for the rights. While 21st Century Fox is keeping its national sports networks like FS1, this deal suggests it will be diminishing as an overall rights competitor of ESPN. As such, when the NBA goes back to the bargaining table in a few years to talk about national rights, there may be less competition among TV-based parties. (Digital competitors like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Netflix should be at the table, though.)

How this affects individual teams should be interesting, too. Once ESPN’s streaming service comes available, how individual teams weigh inclusion on that vs. exclusivity on a regional sports network will matter. ESPN could also squeeze low-viewer teams since the minor finances of local carriage fees will be such a tiny sliver of the business model.

Odds are that at least a few teams will increasingly want to experiment with going over-the-top themselves. But ESPN’s service could be a game-changer for local sports that leads to a lot of innovation and disruption. NBC Sports, which has most of the other local rights for NBA teams, has already begun experimenting with segmented over-the-top services (with one for track and field and another for soccer).

NBC/Comcast could roll out an NBA-only over-the-top service in response to ESPN getting into the local NBA game. It could also stand to be much cheaper for customers than ESPN’s service due to a greater focus and less rights tied up in it. (Comcast’s NBCUniversal unit is an investor in Vox Media, which owns this site.)

How this deal might impact NBA League Pass could get interesting, too. If the combined cost of ESPN’s over-the-top service plus a prospective NBC/Comcast version is less than the $200 cost of League Pass, will hardcore NBA fans be willing to give up the few games they’d miss in a trade-off? (Good luck ever seeing a Nuggets-Jazz game! Neither of those teams is on Fox Sports or NBC Sports networks.) The NBA might need to reassess its League Pass price and, uh, experiential quality in the next couple of years.

The Disney-Fox deal isn’t a surprise to anyone, and the NBA has smart people at the league office and individual teams that will be assessing how this will impact the business and fans. Now that it’s real, we’ll find out just how changed the game will be.