Falcons control their own playoff destiny despite nearly blowing another game

The Atlanta Falcons went into Week 13 with a pretty comfortable spot in the NFC playoff race. They were 8-5 and held the important head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks (also 8-5), while also hanging tight behind the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.

The Saints and Panthers both won on Sunday, moving to 10-4 and keeping the Falcons at arm’s length. But the wild card race got more clarity when the Seahawks laid down and died against the Los Angeles Rams. All the Falcons had to do was beat the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night, and they’d be one week closer to punching their postseason ticket.

They did get the win, but in typical Falcons fashion, it didn’t come easy. Despite playing poorly for most of the night, the Bucs kept things close and were down by just three points heading into the fourth quarter. Devonta Freeman eventually got free for a 32-yard touchdown run to make it 24-14, but the Falcons defense kept giving up big plays, letting Jameis Winston make another touchdown drive with less than four minutes left.

Atlanta tried burning the clock but gave the ball back to the Bucs, who set up a 54-yard field goal attempt that would’ve forced overtime. Fortunately for the Falcons, it missed and they escaped Tampa with the 24-21 win.

Letting teams hang around has been a common theme for the Falcons this season, still trying to shake off the bad memories of 28-3. In Week 4, they let the Buffalo Bills steal a 23-17 win at home, then two weeks later they blew a 17-0 lead to the Miami Dolphins. Had the Falcons held on in those games, they’d be 11-3 and comfortably leading the NFC South right now.

Monday’s game also had eerie parallels to a Week 11 showdown with the Seahawks, with the Falcons clearly outplaying their opponent but never really putting the game away. Russell Wilson led a late touchdown drive to make it 34-31, the Falcons couldn’t kill the clock on their next drive, and only a missed field goal prevented the game from going to overtime. Had this game swung the other way, the playoff picture would look incredibly different right now.

Yet despite the close calls and missed opportunities, the Falcons find themselves in good shape, controlling their own destiny in the final two weeks. In Week 16, the Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys (8-6) face off in an elimination game, while Atlanta gets a rematch with its rival Saints.

When these teams last met in Week 14, Matt Ryan had one of his worst games with three interceptions, but a strong defensive performance led to Atlanta getting the 20-17 win. If they beat New Orleans again, they own the tiebreaker and suddenly have a good shot at the division title, with a Week 17 game against the Panthers looming.

The Falcons aren’t perfect and are sometimes frustrating to watch. Ryan has taken clear step back from his MVP campaign last year, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has caught plenty of heat for not utilizing the offense to its full potential.

But somehow, someway, head coach Dan Quinn has his team right in the middle of the hunt once again. If the Falcons can get out of their own heads and put together more complete performances, they’ll be quite the formidable opponent in January.