NFL picks against the spread 2017, Week 16: The Browns’ last best chance and more big bets for the weekend

It’s probably a good thing that this week’s slate of 16 NFL games is spread out over a holiday weekend. It’s a mostly lopsided bunch of matchups, a collection of Thursday night’s greatest hits, plastered onto a Saturday, Sunday and Monday. You’ll be too busy to watch the blowouts.

But that many one-sided games can at least mean one thing: there’s probably going to be an upset or two. Maybe. So let’s dive in, going day by day through the spreads for each game.

Same drill as usual. The home teams are in all caps, and I get all the lines here from the good people over at OddsShark.

RAVENS (-13.5) over Colts (Ravens 23, Colts 16)

Vikings (-8) over PACKERS (Vikings 16, Packers 0)

What a brutal day of games. Even if things had been different, I’m still not sure the potential of an Andrew Luck/Joe Flacco matchup would’ve been all that great. But the Colts without Luck are a lot like the Packers without Aaron Rodgers — exposed.

SAINTS (-5.5) over Falcons

This should be the best game of the week by far. It’s also kind of a tough one to pick, especially since the favored team is 2-5 in the last seven between these two franchises. But the Saints are at home, they get Alvin Kamara back this week, and they’re undefeated in their last five games at home, winning by an average of almost two touchdowns.

PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Bills

Here’s something to think about. The Bills are a fringe playoff team in the AFC this year, and they’re 11.5-point underdogs to the current No. 1 seed in the conference. A lot of the AFC playoff games this season are going to be boring.

Browns (+6.5) over BEARS

The Bears have never won as the favored team under head coach John Fox. They’re 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games as the favorites.

Now, just imagine the Bears firing John Fox and replacing him with Jeff Fisher.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Broncos

Lions (-3) over BENGALS

Chargers (-6.5) over JETS

Rams (-6.5) over TITANS

Dolphins (+10) over CHIEFS

The Chiefs turned their sagging season around with a pair of back-to-back wins, convincing wins, over the two teams that were threatening their status on top of the AFC West. It’s safe to say Kansas City is back. And it’s no coincidence that they ran for more than 150 yards in each game, something they should try to do every week with Kareem Hunt.

I’m still willing to bet that the Dolphins can keep it within 10 points.

PANTHERS (-10) over Buccaneers

Jaguars (-4) over 49ERS

Giants (+3.5) over CARDINALS

COWBOYS (-4.5) over Seahawks

Ezekiel Elliott is back this week, but it’s not like the Cowboys are going to have to lean on him too much, if they don’t want to. The running game has been pretty effective without him over their last three games, all wins. Having seen what Todd Gurley did to the Seahawks last week, however, it’s a safe bet that Elliott will be welcomed back into the fold with a good 20 carries or more as Dallas clings to its faint playoff hopes.

Steelers (-8.5) over TEXANS

EAGLES (-9) over Raiders

And this is how we finish off Week 16, the second to last week of the regular season. These games are probably best as background noise in your house, something to peep every quarter or so, if you can stand it, while you play with those sweet new presents.