Benfica vs. Borussia Dortmund, 2017 Champions League: Preview, team news, and predictions

While Borussia Dortmund is expected to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals, they’ll be facing a formidable opponent in Benfica on Tuesday.

BVB has the much more impressive squad of these two teams and is the clear favorite in this tie, but it’s clear that Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel has respect for his opponent. Dortmund’s move back to a three-man defense could be seen as preparation for Benfica’s two-striker system. The Eagles’ center back pairing of Victor Lindelöf and Luisão is one of the best in Europe, and that’s often an equalizer for underdog teams. Dortmund’s progression is far from certain.

Benfica’s domestic season is going well. They’re on top of the Portuguese Liga with the league’s best goal differential. They snatched a point from rivals FC Porto away from home with a stoppage time goal, putting them in the driver’s seat for the title race. And while their performance in their Champions League group was a bit disappointing, they did enough to get out of it, and will be thrilled that they avoided the competition’s true giants in the Round of 16 draw.

Dortmund has experienced a roller coaster campaign, filled with big wins and disappointments. They finished ahead of Real Madrid in their Champions League group, but they’ve tripped up domestically. Wins over Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig were followed by losses to lesser opponents the next week. They might be the best team in Germany, but they sit in fourth place, well out of the title race —- BVB’s season is now all about the cups.

Benfica is without suspended forward Andrija Živković and injured defender Lisandro Lopez. Jonas is also struggling with a knock. Eduardo Salvio is likely to start on the wing, while the pressure will be on Kostas Mitroglou to provide firepower up top. If Jonas misses out, Pizzi could move forward or Raúl Jimenez could make a rare start.

Dortmund is hoping they won’t be too thin in the center of the park. Mario Götze and Sven Bender are out for sure, while Tuchel will be sweating the fitness of Nuri Şahin and Sebastian Rode. BVB can field a strong lineup without these players, but won’t have much on the bench if they pick up another injury or want to add a central midfielder for tactical reasons.

Benfica (4-4-2): Ederson Moraes; Eliseu, Victor Lindelöf, Luisão, Nelsinho; Franco Cervi, Ljubomir Fejsa, Pizzi, Eduardo Salvio; Jonas, Kostas Mitroglou

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Roman Bürki; Matthias Ginter, Sokratis Papastathopoulos, Łukasz Piszczek; Raphael Guerrëiro, Julian Weigl, Gonzalo Castro, Erik Durm; Marco Reus, Ousmane Dembélé; Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Guessing Dortmund formations and lineups is nearly impossible. Tuchel rotates constantly and changes his formation almost as often as he changes players. However, it makes sense that they’d stick with the back three they’ve employed over the last two matches, since Benfica uses two strikers. Benfica plays an unorthodox 4-4-2 that’s a bit of a hybrid between the classic formation and a diamond setup.

Dortmund’s wing backs vs. Benfica’s wide-ish players — Both under current manager Rui Vitória and his predecessor Jorge Jesus, Benfica has been known for using a half-midfield shuttler/half-winger role, as popularized by former stars Angel Di Maria and Ramires. If they continue with that against Dortmund, their wide players and Dortmund’s wing backs might end up in some unorthodox matchups. Both teams’ sets of players will have to make difficult decisions they’re not used to making about when to stick with their opponents and when to stay in position.

Ljubomir Fejsa vs. Marco Reus and Ousmane Dembélé — When fit and on form, Reus and Dembélé are nearly unplayable. It’ll take a team effort from Benfica to keep them quiet. But it’ll be especially important for Fejsa to be in the right position to keep them from receiving the ball easily. The best way to defend Reus and Dembélé is to limit passing lanes so it’s hard for them to get the ball in the first place.

Dortmund is the better team and should make the quarterfinals, but they’ve been on average form lately while Benfica has been in good form at home. The hosts should do just enough to keep themselves alive heading to the second leg in Germany. 1-1 draw.