Bracketology: Bubble still muddled with five weeks left

Only one of the top 16 teams in today’s exercise differs from Tuesday’s group, as Duke replaces Cincinnati on line four. Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, and Gonzaga remain the four No. 1 seeds, with the Bears remaining after Wednesday’s close loss in Lawrence.

Here’s how the top 16 are ranked.

And how they fit when placed in the four regions and eight first weekend sites.

The 11 teams below join the 16 protected seeds as our near locks for the second week in a row. With 45 spots available — the 36 at-large selections and nine champions of the likely multi-bid conferences — just 18 remain for the bubble.

Even though American Athletic leader Cincinnati dropped from line four, the Bearcats join Wisconsin, Creighton, and Florida as a formidable quartet of five seeds that will all have opportunities to join the protected seeds over the final five weeks of the season. For example, the Gators host Kentucky on Saturday — the first of two meetings for the pair.

The Bluejays are the most intriguing team in this group. While they boast a profile that would be more fitting of a three or four seed, they’re still working their way through Maurice Watson’s absence. Tuesday’s road win at Butler was a positive indicator for their future.

Similarly, Xavier is another team to watch after it also lost a key player to a knee injury — Edmond Sumner. The Musketeers cleared their first hurdle without him, defeating Seton Hall in Cincinnati on Wednesday.

The fourth seven seed, Northwestern, could have moved into the near-lock group with a win at Purdue on Wednesday. But the Boilermakers routed the Wildcats by 21. That means Chris Collins’s team will be under more pressure in its upcoming games at Wisconsin and against Maryland back in Evanston.

Two other Big Ten teams — Minnesota (losers of five in a row) and Michigan State (3-4 in its last seven) join Northwestern in this group. There are also a pair of teams from the ACC (Virginia Tech and Clemson), Atlantic 10 (Dayton and VCU), and Big 12 (Iowa State and Oklahoma State). The lone Big East team among these 11, Marquette, took a step back by following wins over Creighton and Villanova with losses to Providence (at home) and St. John’s (on the road by 14).

There are some pretty significant changes around the cut line this week.

TCU shored up its chances by winning at Kansas State on Wednesday night — a result that was only the Horned Frogs’ third Big 12 road win in 41 attempts! On the flip side, the Wildcats tumble out, with Tennessee, who defeated them in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, replacing them. On the other hand, California replaces Seton Hall, which it lost to in the Pearl Harbor Invitational back in December. The Golden Bears picked up three more wins than the Pirates since that matchup, including Thursday’s vital double-OT bubble win over Utah.

Indiana, struggling without OG Anunoby and James Blackmon, is another squad trending downward because of injuries. The Hoosiers hold the final direct entry position into the First Round heading into the weekend.

Arkansas, Cal, Michigan, and Georgia Tech are the last four in today. The Yellow Jackets saw their position slip with yet another road loss on Wednesday — this time against fellow bubble team Clemson. They’re going to have to win an ACC road game to stick around long-term.

On the wrong side of the cut line, Seton Hall now has competition to be the potential sixth Big East team in the field, as both Georgetown and Providence are among the first eight out. The Hoyas have a particularly intriguing profile, thanks to that Maui Invitational win over Oregon, a victory over Syracuse that’s looking better, along with huge Big East wins over Creighton and Butler (at Hinkle). On the flip side, the Friars swept the Hoyas and won at Marquette. Plus, Ed Cooley’s squad has helpful non-league wins over both Memphis (in the Emerald Coast Classic) and Rhode Island.

I’ve placed 10 teams in the “Also Considered” category, including a Vanderbilt squad that’s 11-11, but 6-10 against the RPI Top 100. SEC rival Alabama would have been among the first eight out with a win at Arkansas on Wednesday. But the Crimson Tide lost by 19, and it wasn’t that close. A lack of Top 50 wins likely dooms Wake Forest and Wichita State, while Syracuse is going to have to do some heavy lifting in its remaining eight ACC games to make up for losing to Boston College, Georgetown, UConn, and St. John’s earlier this season.

With either four or five weeks left in the regular season (depending on the scheduling of conference championships), just 10 teams have a chance to run the table in league play. Four of them (Arizona, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, and Middle Tennessee) feature in the at-large pool further up. The others (Akron, Belmont, Illinois State, New Mexico State, Princeton, and Vermont) fit among the auto bid-only squads.

Note that Princeton has played just three of its 14 Ivy League games so far, so they have a bit more work to do than the other teams in this group. Arizona, which visits Oregon on Saturday afternoon, is the most likely of the 10 to pick up its first conference loss of the year over the weekend.

For a time, UNCW looked likely to go through the CAA undefeated, but the Seahawks picked up their second conference loss of the year last night to visiting College of Charleston. That defeat all but ended UNCW’s at-large chances.

I’ll have a full bracket update on Tuesday. While this weekend’s slate looks rather underwhelming, especially with a limited slate on Sunday, remember that those are the days that typically provide the most surprises.