NCAA bracket 2017: SB Nation’s bracketologist shares his thoughts

I say that the NCAA tournament Selection Committee is “consistently unpredictable” because the performance of my final projected bracket against the real thing is strikingly similar to last year’s.

In 2016, I correctly seeded 39 teams. One year later, that number sunk to ... 38. Last year, I placed 24 teams within one line of their actual seed. In 2017, that total remained the same. I even missed a No. 1 seed in each of the last two seasons — the Duke Blue Devils this year and the Michigan State Spartans last time. Oops. This year, I had more teams off by two seed lines or more — five compared to three — and four of those were off by a pair.

This time around, I missed just one at-large team, as the Selection Committee obviously didn’t care as much about the Kansas State Wildcats’ poor non-conference schedule, instead favoring their superior RPI and wins away from home when comparing them against a Syracuse Orange team that had plenty of quality wins, but lacked in those other two factors. Last year, I missed two. (Ugh, Tulsa.)

As for the bracket itself, there were some strange decisions made throughout. I’m going to go region-by-region with the things that stand out to me. Some of these are mere trivia, but others might help you out when you’re making your picks this week.

Why are the South Carolina Gamecocks playing in their home state as a seven seed? Bracketing rules technically allow it, as the protected seeds, those on the top four lines, are by rule prevented from being put at a home crowd disadvantage in the first round only. The rule doesn’t apply to the second.

All of 2017’s seven seeds were placed at geographically convenient sites, something the Selection Committee has aimed to improve over the past few years. Putting your top teams at a disadvantage early on isn’t ideal from a competitive standpoint.

The Wisconsin Badgers were one of the two teams I missed by two seed lines, and their RPI was probably a main reason why. Greg Gard’s team finished 36th in the metric, while a Minnesota Golden Gophers team the Badgers swept sat a full 16 spots higher. The Badgers are an eight, the Gophers a five. That and the Kansas State/Syracuse decision are two of the biggest examples of how the much-debated metric seemed to influence things even more than usual this year.

One result of this decision is a potentially tantalizing second round matchup between Wisconsin and the defending national champion Villanova Wildcats in Buffalo on Saturday.

Even though I am a Florida alum and fan, their matchup with Southern Conference champion East Tennessee State concerns me. That pod in Orlando features what could be two of the most popular upset picks this year, as five seed Virginia will be tested by a UNC Wilmington team that returns most of the talent that pushed Duke hard in the first round last season.

The USC Trojans and Providence Friars will meet for the second tournament in a row, but this time the winner in Dayton moves on to the first round. Last season, the Friars won a 70-69 thriller in Raleigh. Wednesday’s winner will face sixth-seeded SMU in Tulsa on Friday.

While the South Region looks to be this year’s “bracket of death,” the geography of the Midwest and the many powerhouse programs within the region and neighboring states, like Kentucky, ensures the regional bracket will always feature several powerhouses with fan bases that can easily make it to regionals.

This time, it’s the Kansas Jayhawks, Louisville Cardinals, and Purdue Boilermakers filling three of the top four spots, with Pac-12 interloper Oregon sitting in the other, probably due to Chris Boucher’s ACL tear. Then, just when the Jayhawks thought they wouldn’t have to face Michigan State Spartans for the first time since 2014, the Spartans lurk as their potential second round opponent on Sunday. Fun!

The Michigan Wolverines, like Duke, claimed their conference tournament by winning four games in four days, though the Big Ten champ’s story was a lot more harrowing. But those triumphs didn’t seem to matter all that much to the Selection Committee. The Wolverines were another team I missed by two lines. I swapped them with then-five seed Wisconsin at the conclusion of the Big Ten final. (I had Michigan as a six at tip off.) And Duke’s four wins over ACC powers didn’t result in them jumping to the top line.

These examples are comforting, however, for those of us who think that regular season crowns should matter more than the crapshoot that is Championship Week. There are some times where you have to recognize consecutive great performances in exceptional and high-pressure situations. Still, it’s a lesson to keep close for next season.

You could call this the CBS Sports Classic Regional, since the top three seeds — the North Carolina Tar Heels, Kentucky Wildcats and UCLA Bruins — participate in the annual made-for-TV doubleheader. (Apologies, Ohio State). Not only did the Tar Heels and Wildcats meet in this season’s edition, with Kentucky winning a 103-100 thriller in Las Vegas, but the Bruins stunned the ‘Cats in Lexington. If all three teams and No. 4 seed Butler (which swept Villanova during the regular season, if you forgot) make it to Memphis that regional could be one of the most entertaining in years.

The majority of this season’s bubble storylines converged here. Not only do Kansas State and Wake Forest meet in Tuesday’s First Four, but two of the more intriguing mid-major conference champs that could have found themselves sweating Sunday out find themselves here. The Missouri Valley champion Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, might have earned an at-large had they lost to the Illinois State Redbirds a week ago. However, the 12th-seeded Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, who had one more Top 100 win than the Shockers, probably wouldn’t have. And since I have been fairly high on the Conference USA champs’ chances for weeks, they would have been a miss had they lost to Marshall Saturday night.

That won’t stop Middle from being another chic upset pick, particularly with Minnesota possibly being over-seeded by a line.

The Selection Committee sure made Wildcats fans wait, and there were plenty of jokes on Twitter about Northwestern being left out. But Chris Collins’ squad indeed made history, and it was rewarded with a matchup against a fellow academic powerhouse plugging away in a power conference, the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Not only did the Commodores make history by becoming the first 15-loss team to earn an at-large, they were amazingly safe — as a nine seed! I would like to say that Vandy’s selection means non-conference scheduling matters, but then I see Kansas State in the bracket. At least the Selection Committee rewarded Vanderbilt by bumping them up a couple of lines for running themselves through a November and December gauntlet.

A Big (East) injury contrast

Xavier, whose Big East quarterfinal win over Butler was just one of three over an opponent not named “DePaul“ since Edmond Sumner was injured, fell down to an 11 seed after going 6-7 without him, including a six-game skid. Creighton, however, ended up as a six, probably a line or two lower than expected while Maurice Watson was healthy (and not facing criminal charges). While the Jays went 7-8 without Watson, they never hit the skid the Musketeers did, and reaching the Big East final helped their case.

Finally, we could have a rematch of the West Coast Conference tournament final if Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s win three games. While in the not-too-distant past, teams from the same conference had to be separated until the regional finals, the NCAA’s revised principles and procedures only require conference rivals to be separated if they’re on the first four seed lines. Thanks to conference expansion, the number of times league mates play during the season determines when rematches can happen. Combine that with a desire to keep teams closer to home, and you might just find more possibilities like this in future brackets.

Thank you again for reading over the 2016-17 season. I’ll be back early this week with picks, so you know what not to do when making yours.