NCAA bracket predictions 2017: Duke will win it all, so stay away from upset picks

There are lots of reasons to fill out a bracket. Maybe you just want to fit in at work. Maybe it helps you enjoy that random 7/10 game that starts at two in the afternoon a little bit more. Maybe you want to be the one guy who picks the crazy upset, so you can lord it over Twitter for the next two weeks. Those are all completely valid reasons.

But other people fill out brackets so they can actually win their bracket challenge. Maybe that person is you, dear reader, the kind of person who is frantically diving through charts of data to try and find that one upset, that magical 13 seed that will capture the nation’s attention, and catapult your bracket, and by extension you, to glory.

This season, that might seem like an even more sensible option. After all, there isn’t really a dominant program this season. Sure, the blue bloods, your Dukes, your Kentuckys, your North Carolinas, are still full of NBA caliber talent, and the defending national champ, Villanova, has a sterling record and the top overall seed. But no regular season performance has stamped anybody as an overwhelming favorite, the one you immediately write into your Final Four in pen, rather than pencil.

Here’s the thing though. Don’t do that.

If you actually want to win, your best bet is go relatively chalk heavy. After all, you get more points for correctly picking those Elite Eight games than you do for nailing this year’s 5/12 upset. Those teams grabbing the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds? They’re getting them because they’re more likely to advance deep in the tournament!

Going heavier on the 1s, 2s, and 3s gives you the best of both worlds. If there are upsets, hey, you can enjoy the upsets, because Duke losing in the first round is funny (well, unless you’re a Duke fan, and if you are, what do you know about having a sense of humor?). If Duke goes on a deep run to the championship, well, you called that, so you have a chance to brag about your in-depth basketball knowledge.

You can’t go all chalk, of course. I like UCLA, as a three seed, to make a run to the Elite Eight, thanks to their high-flying offense and ability to get high percentage shots, even though the advanced stats don’t like them as much. I’m less sold on Gonzaga, a team that I don’t think will be able to shoot as well against a West Virginia or in a rematch with Arizona. I picked Oregon to make the Sweet 16, but I don’t feel great about that at all.

But you’re not going to get them all right. You’re probably going to get most of them wrong, actually. I know I am. But if you want to decrease your chances of feeling embarrassed when your Elite Eight is mostly eliminated before Sunday, don’t spend as much time sweating over whether Middle Tennessee can beat Minnesota, and worry more about how far you think Kansas or UNC can go.

It isn’t fun, but I’m picking the Blue Devils to win it all. They’re finally playing as well as they were projected to start the season, before injures sapped their momentum. They can shoot. They have length. They have a good mix of experience and superstar underclassman. Luke Kennard could heat up and drop 25 on somebody.

If they lose, hey, we’ll all have some fun online. But they will probably win a few games. And this bracket? This bracket will be ready for it.

Duke starts its NCAA tournament journey on Friday at 7:20 p.m. ET on TBS, which you can stream through your Amazon Fire TV or an Amazon Fire tablet if you have a subscription to the channel.

Here’s my full bracket, for you to throw at my face in two weeks once Vermont makes the Sweet 16.