There’s only 1 great choice for NBA Coach of the Year

Every NBA award will be controversial this season. For some awards, this is the case every year. But the tight MVP race, the bizarre Rookie of the Year contest, and the always-confusing Most Improved Player battle should all bring out the knives.

Coach of the Year is one of those awards folks don’t get too hepped up about, despite fuzzy criteria and a perennial lack of consensus. This year’s race is really interesting precisely because there are no runaway candidates. There are a few contenders who have separated themselves from the pack as we approach April. We’ll get to them.

But in order to offer a full review of the league’s 30 head coaches — in this unusually stable season — we’ll start by eliminating those not in contention for consideration. This isn’t to say these coaches have done a bad job, just not a job worthy of league-wide accolades.

Kenny Atkinson, Nets
Luke Walton, Lakers
Earl Watson, Suns
Brett Brown, Sixers
Frank Vogel, Magic
Dave Joerger, Kings
Jeff Hornacek, Knicks
Tom Thibodeau, Timberwolves

We can scratch off eight candidates just because their teams are awful. Only one coach has ever won the award with a sub-.500 record — Red Kerr in 1967 for the Bulls’ inaugural season, where he went 33-40. Only twice have coaches won the award while going .500: Hubie Brown with the 1978 Hawks and Doc Rivers with the 2000 Magic.

These coaches, some promising and some less so, are all well under .500. There’s no chance for them.

Steve Kerr, Warriors
Tyronn Lue, Cavaliers

Kerr will get some votes because the Warriors will have the best record in the league and the coach with the best record always seems to get votes. But Kerr won last year with a record-breaking 73-9 season, and his team added Kevin Durant. There’s some resentment toward the Warriors in general and there will be some penalty for finishing with a worse record, no matter how ridiculous that sounds. (There also has never been a back-to-back Coach of the Year.)

Lue’s Cavaliers, meanwhile, are currently in a dogfight for the No. 1 seed in the East despite having the most talented roster and the best player in the world. Coaches often take the most credit and blame for their teams’ defensive performances. Cleveland’s weakness on that end kills Lue’s case.

Alvin Gentry, Pelicans

Fred Hoiberg, Bulls

The Pelicans haven’t met expectations before or after trading for DeMarcus Cousins. Gentry is probably out the day after the regular season ends.

Hoiberg was right there with Gentry as a candidate for an in-season dismissal. He survived the season (well, so far) but the summer doesn’t look so comforting.

Michael Malone, Nuggets
Terry Stotts, Blazers

One of these coaches will make the playoffs. Malone’s reputation as a defensive master is clearly misplaced, and it took him too long to devote his life to the siren song of Nikola Jokic.

Stotts followed up a shockingly good season with Portland with a shockingly mediocre campaign. He’s still a good coach, but falling this short of expectations disqualifies you for Coach of the Year.

Doc Rivers, Clippers

There is serious debate everywhere as to whether Doc Rivers is actually a good coach. I would argue in the affirmative, but ... no, he’s not the Coach of the Year with the Clippers hanging on to the No. 5 seed for dear life.

Steve Clifford, Hornets
Stan Van Gundy, Pistons

Disappointing seasons for well-respected coaches. The Hornets have talent issues, but fell off hard compared to both last season and to the early part of this season. Clifford is likely safe in the offseason, but the shine wears thin when you can’t put together a good team in back-to-back seasons with similar talent levels.

Van Gundy seems absolutely miserable. He gets paid too much to get fired now, but you almost wonder if that’s not what he’s after. This is perhaps his worst season ever in the NBA.

Nate McMillan, Pacers
Mike Budenholzer, Hawks
Dwane Casey, Raptors

McMillan has done a perfectly cromulent job with a weird roster. Nothing in Indiana is his fault. They are just ... there.

The Hawks have fallen fast, and Bud can’t exactly blame odd front office moves since he also runs the front office.

Casey looked like a contender until Kyle Lowry’s injury helped derail Toronto’s 50-win quest. (It’s again in play after a win streak.) But there are too many better candidates at this point. Casey had his chance, so to speak, last season when the Raptors leaped into contendership.

We have cut our list down to 10.

Jason Kidd, Bucks
David Fizdale, Grizzlies

The Bucks and Grizzlies have been fine, and Kidd and Fizdale are doing fine jobs under difficult circumstances (as in, having no shooting). But neither Milwaukee nor Memphis surprised anyone, and neither team is good enough to drive the conversation toward their coaches. The Bucks and Grizzlies just kind of ... are.

Rick Carlisle, Mavericks

Carlisle deserves immense respect for pulling a team starring Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell, Harrison Barnes, and Dirk Nowitzki to relative respectability. A playoff nod would have gotten Carlisle into the conversation.

We are now down to seven contenders.

Billy Donovan, Thunder

For all we know Billy Donovan has done an exceptional job as the head coach of the Thunder. But it’s hard to think about anything other than RUSSELL WESTBROOK when you’re thinking about the Thunder.

Quin Snyder, Jazz

The Jazz are quite good, and will likely hit 50 wins. But they are no better than the fourth-best team in the West, and that’s where expectations pegged them in the preseason. It’s not fair to discount the work Snyder has done to get the Jazz over the hump from intriguing upstart to legit challenger, but that’s what we have to do given what other coaches have pulled off. Snyder is hurt by so many of us recognizing that Utah could be awesome.

Down to five. Let’s break each one down.

Brad Stevens, Celtics

The boy wizard won over LeBron at All-Star, molded an unwieldy, guard-heavy roster into an elite team, and helped Isaiah Thomas become a flat-out star and local legend. Stevens has the juice of a top NBA prospect as a coach. That tells you something. He’d be an excellent Coach of the Year option.

Scott Brooks, Wizards

This is a classic Coach of the Year case. A new coach arrives at an underperforming franchise, takes a couple months to get the house in order, turns a young player or two into stars, and puts together the team’s best record in decades. The Wizards need to finish 5-4 to win 50 games a year after missing the playoffs. That’s huge! Brooks’ involvement in turning Bradley Beal into a reliable scoring star, Otto Porter into a max player, and Kelly Oubre into a key defender will be smiled upon by voters.

Erik Spoelstra, Heat

If ever the coach of a .500 team deserved Coach of the Year, it’s Spoelstra right now. There’s no realm in which anyone thought Miami, with its 11-30 record in mid-January, would end up in the playoff race with LeBron and Wade gone, Bosh out, and Justise Winslow injured. But Spo has turned Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, and Dion Waiters into the core of a juggernaut! If Spoelstra doesn’t win Coach of the Year, perhaps we can nominate him for a Nobel.

Mike D’Antoni, Rockets

Like Brooks, D’Antoni took over a clearly talented team that underwhelmed in 2015-16. Perhaps even more impressive than Brooks’ work to elevate the unreliable youth, D’Antoni has helped unleash James Harden, the likely MVP, and create a wholly inspiring attack while winning tons of games. (Houston is on track for about 57 wins.) A Coach of the Year trophy would also be a nice form of penance from the media for all the dismissive analysis we’ve given to D’Antoni since he left Phoenix.

Any one of those four candidates would be highly deserving of the honor. However, the award should instead go to ...

Gregg Popovich, Spurs

Another 60-win season. With one All-Star. (Albeit an MVP-caliber All-Star.) Plus he’s had time to serve as the conscience of the NBA at the same time.

Popovich and Pat Riley are the only coaches to have ever won three Coach of the Year awards. Getting Pop another would put him in a class of his own, which is where he belongs.

Give it to Pop. You’ll never regret it.