We have been debating the future of the Memphis Grizzlies forever. Their anachronistic style combined with the seeming instability of the team’s core begged the question: When do you scrap the roster and start over?
Why the Grizzlies should keep their core together, again
What Memphis has is working, even if the team is a step behind the West elite. There’s no reason to reboot now.
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With Memphis now eliminated after a hard-fought six-gamer against the San Antonio Spurs, those questions will rise again.
Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, two members of the Grizzlies core whose roles have become somewhat diminished, will be free agents in July. So will Vince Carter. JaMychal Green will be a restricted free agent.
The Grizzlies’ salary level is already high, owing to huge contracts for Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Chandler Parsons. Locking up Green — which should be a priority — will exhaust their limited cap space. Parsons is untradeable due to the same health issues that make him a huge drain on the Grizzlies’ cap sheet. There is extraordinarily little chaff elsewhere on the roster.
Randolph became a reserve this season, playing about 25 minutes per game. There will likely be interest from other teams. The question is whether Z-Bo wants to play anywhere else. He wouldn’t play more anywhere else, and it’s hard to imagine the bully power forward who doesn’t stretch the floor or get out in transition being a starter anywhere. The interest he draws outside of Memphis would be akin to the interest Al Jefferson and David West drew in recent years, as tough veterans to help guide bench units. That’s exactly what he is in Memphis!
Allen’s outlook is even less alluring. He’s a pure shooting guard who can’t shoot. He still played a huge role for Memphis this season as the primary starting two-guard, a guy who defended the other team’s best wing on most nights. (Arguably, his injury absence cost Memphis a real shot at neutralizing Kawhi Leonard just a bit and winning this series.)
It’s a stress on an offense to have a non-shooting shooting guard. But under new coach David Fizdale, Memphis put together decent shooting figures despite Allen’s lack of offensive contribution. The Grizzlies ranked No. 13 in three-point rate (a frequency metric) and No. 17 in three-point percentage. They are the Rockets or Warriors, but they aren’t the Thunder or Bulls.
How did Memphis climb to the middle of the pack in three-point reliance after finishing in the bottom five in both metrics last season? Gasol became a legitimate stretch-five, hitting 39 percent of more than three triples per game, while Conley became a gunner, doubling his threes per game while hitting 40 percent. Carter and Troy Daniels added some shooting punch off the bench.
When your center and point guard are really good three-point shooters, you can survive playing Allen at the two for 27 minutes per game. That said, the Grindfather is 35, and the injuries are piling up. Reliability is a bigger issue than shooting. With limited resources and no faith that Parsons will return to form, Memphis can’t afford to invest in players who are health risks.
The 40-year-old Carter started in place of Allen in this series. Playing him heavy minutes and asking him to defend guys 15-plus years younger than them in today’s up-tempo, spread NBA is asking a lot.
Daniels would be an option if the Grizz don’t retain Allen — if Daniels could defend. (He can’t, though he’s young and surrounded by defensive greatness, so this is not necessarily a fixed trait.) There’s no one else on the roster able to plug in there.
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In Z-Bo’s case, Green may be ready for a larger role if Memphis can afford to keep him. He’s not much of a scorer and is only a marginally more willing deep shooter than Randolph. But he plays Fizdale’s style: hard-nosed defense along with swift transition offense.
Green proved to be a good fit with Gasol and Conley all season, and Memphis can match any offer sheet he signs. Will another team go all out for Green? Maybe. We all remember the Solomon Hill contract from last summer, and Green has a stronger NBA track record. But keeping JaMychal seems like a serious priority for Memphis, even if it means losing Z-Bo.
The Grizzlies can come back next season with Green and Carter — and with or without Z-Bo and T.A — and be a solid Western playoff team that, if healthy, gives its first-round opponent fits. That’s totally fine.
Memphis has been to the playoffs in seven straight seasons. Only the Spurs and Hawks can also say that. In a market like Memphis — especially with fans who have suffered through bleak dry spells, like the one that preceded the Grit ‘n Grind era — making the playoffs every year and being interesting means success.
To reach the next level, though, Memphis needs Parsons to heal up, stay available, and be what the Grizzlies thought they were getting last summer. Adding a healthy Chandler Parsons to the starting lineup between Conley and Gasol would give Fizdale all the offensive weaponry he needs to go with the ever-tough defense and make Memphis a real contender for Non-Warriors Western Elite status. With Gasol, Conley, and a strong team defense, you don’t need much more, as this season proved. To hit the next level, the Parsons contract needs to start paying off.
