Penguins record fewest shots on goal in Stanley Cup Final win since 1960

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ Game 1 victory over the Nashville Predators, a 5-3 stunner which came despite just 12 shots on goal, might be even more remarkable than you suspected. That shot total is the lowest by any team to win a Stanley Cup Final game since they started recording shot numbers.

According to Play Index on Hockey-Reference, which has shot on goal data for the Stanley Cup Final dating back through 1960, no team has ever won while recording as few as 12 shots on goal.

That’s precisely what the Penguins did Monday, beating Pekka Rinne several times to earn the victory despite the Predators’ ongoing domination of most aspects of the game. It was astonishing to watch Jake Guentzel score the game-winner on Pittsburgh’s first shot on goal in 37 minutes, which came after Nashville scored three consecutive goals to erase a 3-0 deficit.

The Guentzel goal was a turn of events, and fans watching at home were surely dumbfounded by the development. That’s clearly based in logic, though, because literally nobody has ever watched a team win a Stanley Cup Final game while recording so few shots on goal.

Before the Pens’ Game 1 win, the lowest SOG total for a Stanley Cup Final winner in a single game was 15. The 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning and 2014 Los Angeles Kings each won games in the Final despite posting that shot total. However, that’s three more than the Penguins could muster in their series opener.

It’s a bad sign for Pittsburgh, although part of the poor shot generation can be attributed to score effects after taking a 3-0 lead. Then again, that doesn’t come close to explaining the degree to which Nashville dominated the puck from that point forward.

For the Penguins, the good news is that they’re up 1-0, and they still have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Matt Murray. They’re already one win closer to the Stanley Cup, and that puts them in a stronger position relative to the Predators even if the game on the ice told a different story than the scoreboard.

This was an extremely improbable win for Pittsburgh, though, and one that they’ll almost certainly be unable to replicate in future games. Their winning formula going forward needs to involve closing the possession gap, even if they boast advantages in finishing ability and goaltending.

Pretty much all of the time, 12 shots isn’t going to cut it. Since 1960, no team has won with so few shots, and there’s a good chance that fact extends back even longer since we don’t have shot data before then. Hockey can be full of randomness, but this was on the extreme end for the Stanley Cup Final. Don’t expect it to happen again.