Pau Gasol’s Spurs decision is the most important NBA domino to fall yet

We have already had a number of huge trades in the gap between the Finals and the NBA draft. The Celtics flipped the No. 1 pick to the Sixers for No. 3 and a potentially high future pick. The Lakers moved D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov to the Nets for Brook Lopez and a late first.

The Celtics-Sixers trade will have a long-lasting impact as the prospects develop and we find out if Fultz is worth the hype. The Lakers-Nets trade could end up looking like a stroke of genius if Magic Johnson pulls two superstars in 2018, or trades for George now and adds another in a year.

These moves are both aimed at setting up their franchises for the future and neither should really have massive impacts in the very short term. Boston’s rookie will be an ensemble player whether it’s Markelle Fultz or Josh Jackson. Adding a future asset helps a potential blockbuster down the road. L.A.’s move is intended to amass assets for a Paul George deal and keep a path clear for Lonzo Ball.

But there was another move in that vein that may have even deeper ripple effects across the league. On the surface, the Spurs convincing Pau Gasol to decline his $16 million player option for the 2017-18 season is a set-up move. In and of itself, the transaction doesn’t materially affect their on-court prospects. But of all the moves made so far this offseason, it could have the biggest impact on what happens in the NBA next season.

All Chris Paul-to-the-Spurs pipe dreams go through Gasol opting out. In fact, CP3 to the Spurs was considered a pipe dream precisely because it seemed so unlikely that Gasol would opt out.

The Spurs needed to clear roughly $30 million in salary to make a real run at CP3. Had Pau picked up his option, that would have required moving both LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker, likely for pennies on the dollar. With Pau declining the option, the path forward is clearer.

That doesn’t mean it will happen. The Spurs are unlikely to move such big pieces without assurances from Paul that he’s on board, and he’s unlikely to commit until he talks with multiple teams. The Spurs did this dance two years ago with Aldridge, but CP3 — who is older, far more famous, and more expensive — will be a different kind of waltz.

There’s also the small matter of how much more money the Clippers can offer CP3 than any other franchise. That’s not an insignificant factor. Thanks to the Over-38 rule, which Paul helped negotiate into the new collective bargaining agreement as president of the NBPA, he’s in line for one final blockbuster payday in excess of $200 million. CP3 can only get that money from the Clips.

But the Spurs are in the game in a big way because they are the Spurs. Thanks to Gasol’s opt-out there is a clearer path for them to land Paul and that should make everyone nervous. Amid a Warriors hegemony where only two teams can dream of challenging Golden State’s supremacy, the Gasol decision reigns as the most impactful to date.

Yes, the Warriors swept the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. But Kawhi Leonard was healthy for just one half of Game 1, and the Spurs rolled in that half. With Kawhi, CP3, and the usual Spurs magic, the Warriors would at least sweat. Beware the Spurs. Gregg Popovich and the crew are cooking something up.