Jeff Teague, Timberwolves might reach 1st deal in 2017 NBA free agency

The Minnesota Timberwolves are “heavy, heavy favorites” to sign Jeff Teague, according to USA Today’s Sam Amick. In fact, one local source is already reporting that it’s a “done deal,” hours before the moratorium has even lifted.

For the sake of not assuming the Timberwolves are committing tampering, let’s assume that Minnesota hasn’t formalized anything yet given that they can’t actually talk to Teague yet. Regardless, it seems like this is on its way to happening.

Earlier on Friday, the Timberwolves traded Ricky Rubio to the Utah Jazz for a future first round pick. This expected Teague move explains why Tom Thibodeau — head coach and president of basketball operations — was willing to give up Rubio for such a small price. Technically, the trade is only a swap of Rubio for the Utah draft pick, but you might as well include Teague into that deal for Minnesota. Cap space is an asset, and the Timberwolves wouldn’t have had that cap space without dealing Rubio.

Rubio can’t, hasn’t, and probably will never be able to shoot. He’s still a good NBA point guard with many excellent talents, but his inability to shoot ruled him out as the point guard leading Minnesota. The team will be starting Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns next year. While all three can hit threes, they aren’t dangerous enough floor spacers to really create the spacing that the Timberwolves crave. With Rubio, who shot 31 percent on 2.6 three-point attempts per game last season, it would be even worse.

Teague, unfortunately for the Timberwolves, isn’t a knockdown shooter. But he’s better, and that’s clearly what Minnesota is looking for in this situation. He’s a career 36 percent shooter from deep (compared to Rubio’s 32 percent) and two seasons ago, he shot 40 percent on 3.5 attempts per game. You have to guard him out at the three-point line more than you would have to pay attention to Rubio.

It’s debatable whether Teague is actually even a better point guard than Rubio overall, but in this circumstance, the Timberwolves clearly prefer the one who can shoot a little bit better. It’s not a perfect fit — Kyle Lowry or George Hill would be amazing on this team. But Minnesota probably felt or heard they had little shot at either of those two, and so they are prepared to quickly move on Teague as soon as free agency begins.

I mean, 9.8 out of 10 chance this happens? It seems like a done deal, barring a last second change of heart. Now please let Lance Stephenson run point guard in Indiana in the most fun tank job of all time.