MLB trade rumor grade: Yu Darvish to the Cubs?

Yu Darvish is excellent, a pending free agent, and currently employed by an under-.500 team. As such, we will be saturated with Darvish trade rumors for the next 10 days. I would complain, except it’s going to be a whole mess of fun.

Up until now, though, the rumors were vague. The Rangers were exploring the idea of trading Darvish. Contending teams have checked in. Sources with knowledge of the Rangers’ thinking were concerned that trades were just a construct and that man was not meant to be used in the transactional follies of the ruling class. There wasn’t anything concrete. Give us a concrete rumor!

Well, all right. You can build a house out of that sucker. The Cubs have already made the biggest move of the deadline so far, and they’re at least contemplating making another whopper. Does this rumor make sense?

Prospects, mostly. And, yes, I’m going to use that line every time.

Good prospects, though. Even though Darvish is a rental, and rental pitchers have fallen out of favor in the July bazaar, he’s still an extraordinarily valuable trade target. There aren’t a lot of pitchers available whom a team can plug right into the top of their rotation, which makes Darvish something of a rarity. If you’re getting Jaime Garcia because you need someone to start Game 2 of the Division Series, you’re probably in trouble. If you’re getting Darvish to start Game 2, you’re just being proactive and wise.

The problem is the Rangers kinda want Darvish to start Game 1 or Game 2 for them. The Rangers are just 4 1/2 games out of the second wild card, although they’re behind two teams in their own division, and they’re five games under .500. They’re as close to the A’s as the Mariners and as close to the Padres in wins and losses as the Yankees, the team they’re currently chasing. You can understand the desire to punt and focus on an aggressive offseason five games under .500.

On the other hand, they’re just 4 1/2 out of the second wild card, and while Cliff Lee returned to the Phillies and Aroldis Chapman returned to the Yankees after deadline deals, the vast majority of players traded don’t return. And the Rangers might have a template for the next couple of seasons that absolutely involves Darvish. Instead of Lee/Chapman, the Rangers might be thinking more like the Giants with Hunter Pence in 2013, preferring the extra months of negotiation to whatever prospects they could have received.

A really good pitcher to slot somewhere around Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks or John Lackey. It would be hard to call that quintet “fearsome” until Arrieta figures out what’s wrong, or until Lester gets his ERA under 4.00, or until Hendricks comes off the DL, but it’s not not fearsome. It sure is a collection of well-known names. Lester/Darvish/Quintana wouldn’t be the first group of pitchers I’d ask to face in the postseason.

Except there are a couple of catches. The first is that the Cubs already have five starting pitchers with a recent history of success. And while it’s easy for me to write, “Just kick Lackey out of the rotation!”, it’s a little trickier to convince the Cubs to give up some of their best prospects to do that, especially when they’ve just given up two of their best prospects to get Quintana.

The second catch is that Darvish is a rental, and he would possibly leave after the season, along with Arrieta and Lackey, with no obvious replacement ready within the organization. While the trade would also serve as a recruiting period for Darvish, who might be the Cubs’ preferred target anyway, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be hard for them to give up top prospects for two months of the regular season and however much postseason they’ll get to enjoy.

The difference between Lackey and Darvish over two months is likely to be much smaller than you think, and while it looks like the Cubs will need every last win, it’s harder and harder to justify a huge prospect dump for a rental after the Quintana trade.

The Rangers want to keep Darvish beyond this season, and they’re quasi-contending right now. The Cubs have already spent some of their prospect capital, and a rental doesn’t really fit their needs.

Darvish makes more sense for a team without a pair of aces at the top of the rotation, like the Brewers or Yankees. Those are teams that can afford to plug their noses at the idea of a rental because of how sweet it would be to have Darvish pitching a Game 1 or Game 2. The Cubs have a full rotation, and it’s filled with pitchers they’d be comfortable with in the postseason.

This is a C rumor, at best.