MLB trade rumor grade: Zach Britton to the Astros?

Zach Britton has allowed as many earned runs in his last two appearances as he did in 69 appearances last year. Part of that is Britton has struggled with injuries and inconsistency this season. Another part is that his 2016 season was always fluky and unrepeatable, and that’s not meant as a slight. There has never been a the pitcher in the history of baseball who was a true 0.54 ERA talent. It was a season to marvel at, but not expect again.

Britton was outstanding in the two seasons before that, though. He is a late-inning weapon, and I’m comfortable trusting in the 209 innings before this season instead of the 18 innings from this season. Even if it takes him a month or two to regain his form, all that matters for some teams is if he regains it by October.

Teams like the Astros, say.

Mmm. That’s a good rumor. We can absolutely grade this sucker.

Prospects.

Seems like we keep putting that reason in this section, but it fits. The Orioles would get prospects. They can use some of those.

More specifically, though, the Orioles have a good track record of finding and/or making relievers. They correctly identified that Britton’s future was in the bullpen in the first place, and they’ve been successful at polishing rough gems like Mychal Givens or liberating underappreciated pitchers like Darren O’Day. I don’t know what a Richard Bleier is, but it apparently has a 1.60 ERA in 39 ⅓ innings.

Teams that can do this should absolutely, without question, look to deal relievers when they’re in a bit of a rough patch. The Orioles have allowed 549 runs and scored 469. That’s bad. I want you to picture the Orioles somehow making the postseason as the second wild card and setting up their ALCS rotation with Ubaldo Jimenez or Wade Miley in it. It would be more dadaist than sabermetric, and it’s not going to happen. If they contend next year, it’ll be because the rotation is shored up. They can worry about the bullpen then.

Britton would probably net them a bunch of prospects. He isn’t a free agent until after the 2018 season, after all. And while he’s been outstanding for them, the odds of him enjoying a multi-decade Trevor Hoffman career are low for everyone, not just him. The odds that a long-term deal into his 30s wouldn’t work out, so this is the zenith of his value.

I’m not in charge of the Orioles, but ... yeah, trade him. Trade him now before you do something stupid like give him $90 million or before he breaks.

They would get another power arm in a bullpen full of power arms. It’s at this point that I must point out how ridiculous the Astros’ bullpen is.

The Astros have had 10 different relievers throw 29 innings or more this season. Do you want to know what the lowest K/9 is for those 10 relievers? Do you? You do not. Because it’s terrifying.

The lowest K/9 in the Astros’ bullpen belongs to Tony Sipp. He’s struck out 32 batters in 30 ⅔ innings. He would have the second-highest K/9 on the 2017 Giants. He’s the outlier in the Astros’ bullpen. All of the other nine relievers have struck out more than 10 batters for every nine innings they’ve pitched. That’s absurd.

Ah, but they aren’t preventing runs like they want to. With those hard fastballs come fastballs down the middle, and the Astros’ bullpen has a serious homer problem. They also walk a lot of batters, too, which is something of a bad combination. The Astros seem like they’re this close to having a bullpen of the gods, but they’ve been able to rely on just two relievers, really: Ken Giles and Chris Devenski.

With Britton, they would have a hydra that would shorten every single postseason game. Devenski is already stretching out for multiple innings, and Giles seems content as the quiet ninth-inning guy. Getting Britton would allow the Astros to let Mike Fiers pitch five or six innings in the postseason and leave with the satisfaction of a job well done. That’s a big deal.

While the Astros could trade for Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish, expending their prospect capital that way, the super-bullpen strategy is effective, too. Or maybe both? The Astros can probably do both. I’m not suggesting they do both, but it’s definitely an option.

Either way, Britton makes sense for them. If their scouts aren’t worried, the Astros should be hyper-aggressive.

A+, baby. This is a sweet rumor. And if Britton really isn’t the same pitcher this year, if he stumbles around and keeps allowing more runs than an elite reliever should, I’ll delete this post. That’s the SB Nation Promise™, and I pledge it to you.