College Football

Updating the College Football Playoff impact tracker as Week 5’s Top 25 final scores roll in

Let’s keep track of the games on the Week 5 schedule that matter most: those involving Top 25 teams.

Updated Oct 1, 2017, 6:03 AM UTC

Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images

Below, let’s look at Week 5’s ranked games in a way similar to the College Football Playoff committee’s perspective.

For the committee, it’s not about what you did this week. It’s about what your entire schedule did all year long. Beating a team in Week 5 that finishes .500-plus is better than beating a team that doesn’t, no matter where either team is ranked at kickoff. The same goes for a team that finishes in the Playoff’s Top 25. The committee also looks at whether your offense and defense outscored your opponent’s average opponent.

Committee rankings won’t be out until Oct. 31, so we’ll stick with AP Poll rankings for now.

We’ll have fun stuff and gameplay analysis elsewhere and later on. This post is only about how these results are likely to impact the Playoff picture.

Week 5 Top 25 college football final scores

Brief notes on games involving ranked teams will be added here as soon as each goes final. Win projections are based on S&P+.

Very likely to matter, since both teams are projected to finish strong.

No. 2 Clemson 31, No. 12 Virginia Tech 17: Clemson finishes the day with three wins over teams that’ll remain ranked, two of them on the road. I think the committee might have Clemson No. 1 as of right now, if it made rankings this early.
No. 16 Washington State 30, No. 5 USC 27: The Pac-12 South’s Playoff hopes are in major danger, but the Apple Cup is starting to look massive. The committee might take note of USC having three offensive line injuries, if the Trojans end up in position to use a mulligan.
No. 14 Miami 31, Duke 6: The Canes head to Tallahassee 3-0, adding a road W over a potential 8-4 team and holding Duke 34 points below its scoring average.
UCF 40, No. 30 Memphis 13: The Knights just overtook Memphis among the primary non-power New Year’s Six contenders (San Diego State, Memphis).

Should matter at least a little bit.

No. 1 Alabama 66, Ole Miss 3: The Rebels can’t make a bowl (NCAA stuff!), but still have a chance at 7-5 or so, unless this game broke them.
No. 4 Penn State 45, Indiana 14: The Hoosiers are projected to finish about 6-6.
No. 7 Georgia 41, Tennessee 0: The Vols are projected to finish around 7-5, though this whole thing could just sail off the cliff.
No. 10 Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 24: Northwestern’s on pace for about 6-6.
No. 13 Auburn 49, No. 24 Mississippi State 10: MSU should finish about 6-6.
No. 15 Oklahoma State 41, No. 28 Texas Tech 34: Yep, Texas Tech should make a bowl.
No. 19 San Diego State 34, NIU 28: Adding quality wins is especially crucial in the non-power NY6 race, and NIU’s a potential 7-5 team with a win at Nebraska.
No. 21 Florida 38, Vanderbilt 24: Vandy’s projected around 6-6.
No. 22 Notre Dame 52, Miami (Ohio) 17: Miami’s a likely bowl team and potential MAC East contender.
Troy 24, No. 25 LSU 21: The Trojans are 3-1 and suddenly in the New Year’s Six race, assuming everybody else drops a game and the Tigers don’t totally crater. The latter is on the table.