Nathan MacKinnon emerging as Hart Trophy contender after years of stalled development

A year ago around this juncture, Nathan MacKinnon was “stressed all the time.” The Avalanche forward was struggling in the midst of a disastrous season where seemingly nothing went right, and it was starting to get to his head.

“Losing takes a toll on you,” MacKinnon said last January, when the Avs were mired in a run of 19 losses in 21 games. “Obviously we’re blessed to play this game and we’re fortunate, but losing feels like when you’re a kid when you lose. It sucks.

“You don’t wake up happy. You go to sleep worrying about things. You’re stressed all the time. It doesn’t sit well with any of us. It’s been a tough year for sure.”

If only MacKinnon had the ability back then to time travel into the future a year. He would’ve known how much better things would get. He would’ve known the Matt Duchene situation would finally reach a conclusion. He would’ve known he’s gone from a target of frustration to full-blown Hart Trophy candidate.

That last part is not hyperbole, either. Even in a season where Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos are shredding up defenses, John Tavares is at the height of his powers, and Connor McDavid still exists, MacKinnon is without a doubt playing at an MVP-caliber level.

Since the start of November, MacKinnon has a ridiculous 17 goals and 29 assists in 32 games. He’s averaged a point per game at even strength during that stretch, and is now tied for second in the NHL in points with Tavares, Johnny Gaudreau, and Claude Giroux.

Kucherov remains the leader in that category, but he’s had the benefit of sharing a line with Stamkos and playing on one of the league’s best power plays. MacKinnon, meanwhile, is actually the NHL’s leader in 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes. Here’s the top 10, via Corsica:

MacKinnon always had the tools to be a dominant scorer in the NHL, which he showed as an 18-year-old with 24 goals and 63 points in 82 games. But he recorded just 143 points in 218 games during his age 19-21 seasons, the victim of some bizarrely low even-strength shooting percentages for both himself (6.5 percent) and the team (8.2 percent) over that span.

That unfortunate trend finally came to an end this season, as MacKinnon is shooting 12.1 percent and the Avs are shooting 12.2 percent with him on the ice at even strength. Those numbers might be a little higher than we can reasonably expect going forward, but they probably won’t drop back down near 8 percent, either.

MacKinnon’s greatness is also apparent in the impact he has on his linemates. Mikko Rantanen, the Avs’ other young star, remains productive away from the center, but Gabriel Landeskog’s numbers plummet without him.

Part of this difference can be accounted for in terms of usage — Landeskog’s offensive zone percentage is lower without MacKinnon, for example — but it still shows the night-and-day impact that the center has on one of his primary linemates. Together, they’ve been exceptional. Separately? Not so much.

These are the kinds of things that we expect from MVP candidates. MacKinnon puts up huge numbers, elevates his teammates, and does it with some of the most impressive raw tools in the league. He’s big, strong, fast, controls play, and has shaken off those years of low shooting percentages.

There were times over the past few years when it felt like MacKinnon might not put it together. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 NHL draft was so good as a rookie, but three seasons of sputtering development book ended by that disastrous 2016-17 cast some doubt over where his career was going. It’s clear all that losing started getting to him last season.

But what a difference the past year has made for MacKinnon and the Avalanche. He’s now living up to the hype as one of the most dominant forwards in the entire NHL. If he continues at this pace and pushes Colorado toward the playoffs, Hart Trophy voters need to give him proper due.