Mike Smith trade proving to be a major win for Calgary Flames

The Calgary Flames lost their third straight game in overtime Wednesday night, but it wasn’t the fault of Mike Smith. The goalie saved 25 of 27 shots in the 3-2 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Kings. It’s the 17th straight appearance where he’s allowed three or fewer goals.

The acquisition of Smith over the summer wasn’t responded to with much fanfare. The longtime netminder for the Arizona Coyotes had an incredible 2011-12 season, when he finished fourth in Vezina Trophy voting. But since then he had been far less impressive.

Here’s The Hockey News at the time of the trade, which sent goalie Chad Johnson, defenseman Brandon Hickey, and a conditional 2018 third-round pick to Arizona for Smith with 25 percent of his $5.667 million cap hit retained:

“It’s hard to say the blueline improvements will be enough to turn Smith from an average netminder to one that can put the Flames into Stanley Cup contention, though, and if that’s what Calgary is hoping for, they could end up sorely disappointed.”

Yahoo! Sports called the trade a “shot in the dark.” A writer for Matchsticks and Gasoline, SB Nation’s Flames blog, said of the deal, “I cannot say this was the approach I was hoping the Calgary Flames would take.”

So while the cost of adding Smith wasn’t particularly high, there wasn’t much optimism around his play. He had been the No. 1 for the Coyotes, but among 29 goalies to play at least 10,000 minutes from 2012-13 through 2016-17, Smith was 25th in save percentage and 26th in Goals Saved Above Average, according to Corsica.

We’ve seen an elite-level season from him, when he posted a .930 save percentage in 67 games in 2011-12 then dominated a run to the conference finals, but he had been decidedly below average since then.

But goaltending can be a tricky position, and there’s no doubt anymore about whether the Smith trade was the right call after Brian Elliott’s flameout in the playoffs last spring. He’s been a game-changer for the Flames with a .926 save percentage in 41 starts this season. Their Stanley Cup aspirations look increasingly realistic together if he keeps this up.

Among goaltenders to play at least 1,000 minutes this season, Smith leads the NHL with 19.87 Goals Saved Above Average, per Corsica. He’s top five in save percentage, and while his raw numbers don’t quite match up with Andrei Vasilevskiy, his superior GSAA reflects that he’s seen more shots and high-danger shots. His expected save percentage, which is calculated based on the difficulty of shots faced, is nearly 1 percent lower.

The Flames are third in the Pacific Division with a 25-16-7 record as a result of his play. The even-strength offense is sputtering outside of the top six, and the power play ranks 23rd in the NHL, but Smith’s stellar play has helped comb over some of those issues.

For a team with Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mikael Backlund up front, plus Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton on the back end, the potential is immense if they can get into the playoffs. Last season’s run was undone by Elliott’s struggles, but Smith looks like he could be far better than that.

While the Flames will need to give up a second-round pick instead of a third-round pick if they reach the conference finals, that would be totally worth it. They landed a steady No. 1 goalie at a reasonable cap hit for two seasons, and that pick was the biggest asset given up.

It’s looking like a nice win for general manager Brad Treliving and the move that could potentially put the Flames over the top and past the first round of the playoffs. Pretty good for a shot in the dark.