I loved the NFL lines last weekend. This weekend, they are awful. There’s almost no advantages so we must get creative and I’ve got some plays for you.
Geoff Schwartz’s best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season
Retired NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz is back with his best bets for Week 15.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
First off, I know parlays aren’t the “best” of bets, but when the lines are bad like this week, you need to have some fun. So let’s start this off with a moneyline parlay for Sunday.
Washington @ Jacksonville -325
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore -360
Houston -280 @ New York Jets
Green Bay @ Chicago -275
Jacksonville isn’t that good, but Washington is worse. Washington is starting Josh Johnson at quarterback against a Jacksonville defense that’s still good on paper. There’s also no chance a team led by Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone won’t be fired up to avenge their poor performance against the Titans.
Tampa Bay has the 31st ranked rushing defense. Baltimore loves to run the ball with Lamar Jackson at QB. Tampa also allows almost 30 points per game on the road.
Do the Jets cover the -6? Maybe. Do they win the game? Nope. Sam Darnold is playing better but he doesn’t have the weapons on his offense to challenge the Texans’ defense. Texans need to keep pace with the other teams in the AFC as well.
The Packers won’t be able to move the ball well on the Bears. The Packers have a beat up offensive line and no longer a head coach. They played OK last weekend but now they are on the road against a Bears team who is feeling it. Mitchell Trubisky should play better in his second start after return from a shoulder injury.
It’s a four team parlay that pays $209 on a $100 bet.
Detroit Lions (under 18.5 points team total) @ Buffalo Bills
Since Week 7, the Lions have scored 14, 9, 22, 20, 16, 16, and 17. Their offense just hasn’t been good and they head on the road for the second week in a row. The Bills are third in yards per play on defense while the Lions are 26th on offense in the same category. The Lions are also poor on third down which isn’t great on the road. I don’t think they show well on offense Sunday
Baltimore Ravens (over 27 points team total) vs Tampa Bay
As I mentioned above, Tampa Bay has an awful run defense. The Ravens, as they’ve had the last four weeks, they will be able to move the ball at will on the ground. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t great but it’s even worse on the road. They are allowing 39.8 points per game on the road and the over in general has hit in all six of those game. The reason I’m not taking the game over total is the Ravens’ defense. They are going to get after Tampa and Jameis Winston is due for a four pick game.
