The NFL is a league built around the goal of parity, but recently, the playoffs have been pretty predictable. In four of the last five years — including the upcoming matchup between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles — the Super Bowl has paired up the top seed in the AFC and with the top seed in the NFC.
Does Super Bowl 52 show that home-field advantage is becoming more important?
Eagles vs. Patriots is the fourth meeting of No. 1 seeds in the last five years.
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The only season that bucked that trend was last year when the No. 2-seeded Atlanta Falcons played the top-seeded Patriots in Super Bowl 51. With the Dallas Cowboys going down in the Divisional Round, the Falcons didn’t have to play any postseason road games on their way to the Super Bowl.
Home-field advantage has reigned supreme as of late, but that hasn’t always been the case, by any stretch:
So what gives? It’s hard to say.
Home teams have always had an advantage when it comes to the playoffs. They are 89-53 in the Wild Card Round (0.627), 152-62 in the Divisional Round (0.710), and 94-46 in the conference championships (0.671). There are few reasons to explain why:
- Crowd noise helps.
- Familiarity with winter weather at home.
- The home team earned a higher seed by being, well, a better team.
But none of that really explains why top-seeded teams are cruising through competition now more than ever. In the last five years, home teams are 35-15 (0.700) in the playoffs and the 2016 Cowboys are the only No. 1 seed to go down early.
Are the teams at the top of the league dominating more than ever? Is it just a coincidence? Whatever the explanation, leading a conference with the best record in the regular season has been a solid formula for postseason success.
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