Why LeBron James’ claim about NBA refs protecting jump shooters doesn’t add up

LeBron James, who this year isn’t drawing fouls at the rate he has grown accustomed to during previous seasons, made waves this week by arguing that officials are protecting shooters at the expense of players who drive to the rim when it comes to awarding free throws.

This is a profound claim given one of the disadvantages to teams relying on a perimeter-oriented attack is fewer fouls are drawn. If officials are indeed calling more fouls on jump shots and fewer on drives to the basket, that would negate one of the few advantages a penetrating style has over the spread floor style that has taken over.

There isn’t much obvious evidence this has happened, though.

Of the top 10 players in free-throw attempts per game this season, only two — James Harden and Damian Lillard — are prolific three-point shooters who land in the top 10 in long-range shots attempted. A third higher-frequency shooter, DeMarcus Cousins, also happens to be a burly bully who sops up rebounds and fouls in the lane. This data is from NBA.com.

The other seven players in the top 10 in free-throw attempts may shoot some threes, but are primarily known for their exploits at or heading toward the rim.

This is not out of the ordinary for the modern era. In 2016-17, there were four high-frequency deep shooters in the top 10 in free-throw attempts: Harden and Lillard plus Russell Westbrook and Isaiah Thomas. (Cousins, too, took a bunch of threes, but, again, he’s a very particular case.) In 2015-16, Harden and Danilo Gallinari were high-frequency shooters in the top 10 in free throws.

What appears to be happening when looking at this data is that everyone — including foul magnets like Cousins and Joel Embiid — is shooting threes more frequently, meaning you’ll necessarily have more of the top foul-drawers taking more threes. That doesn’t mean those players are being fouled more frequently on jumpers, though. (There may be tracking data that can prove James’ theory correct or not; but we don’t have access to it.)

It seems unquestionable that we see more fouls on three-pointers than ever before. But it stands to reason we would in a gross-count sense since we are seeing more threes than ever before. If dunks per game were increasing at the rate threes per game are, we’d expect to see more fouls on dunks, too.

There is actually evidence that as the NBA moves toward a more perimeter-oriented style, shooting fouls are happening less frequently. Here’s data from Basketball-Reference.com.

As the rate of three-pointers taken increases, the rate of free throws falls. This season features the lowest free-throw rate, league-wide, in at least five years.

James is drawing fewer fouls. But so is the entire league, including the primary jump shooters.

Again, better tracking data may prove James’ core thesis that players are now more likely to draw a foul on a jump shot than a drive. But there’s no macro-level data to suggest the NBA is “protecting” shooters on a wide scale to pump up scoring numbers. The direct correlation between free throws and three-pointers on a league-wide basis indicates simply that as players move away from the basket, contact between opposing players on shot attempts decreases. This makes complete sense.

Here’s the other thing at play: James is really arguing that he isn’t getting the free throws he deserves, which may very well be true. (James can, and does, absorb a lot of contact without being knocked off-track, much like peak Shaquille O’Neal.) But by assigning the complaint to the new paradigm — by blaming the new style of play for his problem instead of making a direct appeal to get more free throws himself — he shapes the narrative in a certain way that may make it more likely for the league or individual officials to work him more fairly (in his eyes). Groveling for free throws is gauche. Opening up philosophical discourse on the impact of the new style of play on the inherent fairness of foul-drawing is smart.

All that said, a decrease in free throws is good for the NBA. The league has made a number of efforts to speed up the game. It’s pretty clear that league commissioner Adam Silver’s office would like to fit every non-playoff, non-overtime game into a two-hour window. The decrease in timeouts, the quicker review process using a central replay center, rules to prevent intentional fouls at certain junctures — this is all in place to speed up the game. Decreasing free throws overall speeds up the game. It hardly seems intuitive that the league would focus on more frequently calling fouls on jump shots relative to two-pointers as the frequency of jump shots increases given this desire to shorten games.

That said, the NBA has worked since the late 1990s to favor offense and reduce physical contact overall, with the hand-check rule being the most prominent, impactful example. So protecting jump shooters as we enter the new paradigm is important to keep the game pretty and the scores high. There’s just no theoretical explanation as to why or evidence proving that the NBA is systematically favoring jump shooters over rim attackers in foul calls now.

Long story short: James wants more free throws, but his specific argument as to why he is not getting them is weak and unsupported.