The Pelicans are staying in New Orleans, but for how long?

The New Orleans Pelicans only exist but for the grace of two people: former NBA commissioner David Stern and franchise majority owner Tom Benson.

Stern prevented the team’s previous controlling partner, the awful George Shinn, from moving the Pelicans (then the Hornets) in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. In the midst of reportedly going broke, Shinn later tried to sell the team to out-of-towners who planned to relocate the franchise, possibly to Silicon Valley.

Stern prevented him, and in a bold and consequential stroke, convinced the other 29 NBA franchise owners to collectively purchase the team and let the commissioner’s office oversee it. As the league stabilized under a new labor deal, Stern sought and found a local owner for the Pelicans, one who would commit to keep the team in New Orleans.

That was Benson, the local hero who also owned the Saints and brought New Orleans a Super Bowl victory. Benson may have well been the only candidate to buy the Pelicans, keep them in Louisiana, and try to build something that could last. (The results remain mixed. As Benson began suffering from health problems, the state of his estate — including control of the Pelicans — came into question.)

Benson passed away last week at the age of 90. Stern retired four years ago. Who will save the New Orleans Pelicans now?

Benson’s will leaves his widow, Gayle Benson, in control of the Pelicans. There is no indication she will look to offload the Pelicans — the New Orleans Advocate reports the organizational transition will be “seamless” and a sale or relocation is currently off the table.

The Pelicans’ value has possibly tripled (or more) since Benson bought the team for $338 million in 2012. The Houston Rockets sold last summer for $2.2 billion. The Pelicans are likely worth at least $850 million — roughly what the Atlanta Hawks sold for in 2015.

That huge jump in value and the Pelicans’ assumed struggle to actually turn a substantial annual profit contribute to the concern Benson won’t hold onto the team indefinitely.

Stern struggled to find someone who could afford to buy the Pelicans and keep them in New Orleans, a tough market for the NBA due to size, football’s dominance, a lack of pro basketball tradition, and a relative dearth of corporate suite-fillers. With the purchase price tripled, the odds of Gayle Benson finding a new local savior for the Pelicans should she decide to sell seem rather long.

Under a publicly-funded renovation deal inked in 2012 — before Benson took over the team — the Pelicans signed a new lease keeping the club in New Orleans until 2024. These long-term leases typically aren’t iron-clad: there are penalties for teams who leave early, and the local or state governments who hold those leases may choose to negotiate a settlement instead of subjecting it all to expensive litigation.

One presumes the NBA is smart enough to not allow a franchise to get in that mess; there is evidence the league learned from the intractable, ugly Seattle situation. This is why the Sacramento Kings remain a concern. But there is a non-zero chance the Pelicans could leave New Orleans before 2024.

Even if they don’t, 2024 really isn’t too far away. According to the blueprint for public funding for arenas and stadiums, now is right about the time the franchise in question would begin agitating for major renovations or a new building entirely. The tide is turning strongly against public funding for these facilities. Those localities that do fund projects even couch the public contributions in euphemisms and pass off the buildings as paying for themselves. (Sometimes, this may even be true.)

The Smoothie King Center, née the New Orleans Arena, is now 19 years old. It had major renovations within the last six years and is still modern enough to host NBA All-Star Games, but it will not last forever. At some point, the Pelicans — whether it’s Gayle Benson or the next franchise owner — will note the need for updated digs. That will set off a chain that raises the specter of relocation of the franchise if New Orleans or Louisiana cannot or will not help pay for a new arena.

Seattle, which is building an NBA-ready arena now, a decade after the SuperSonics fled, is there to be used as a threat with teeth, much as it was when the Kings were on the block. Plenty of other markets are, too.

This won’t actually be lost on either Benson or top deputy Dennis Lauscha, given that Tom Benson wasn’t particularly shy about threatening relocation of the Saints to get what he wanted for the SuperDome. The Pelicans have a much smaller legacy in southern Louisiana than the Saints. If there’s an impasse over funding for a new arena, relocation threats are going to come quick and hot.

Frankly, given the fact there are more lucrative markets on the table and that NBA franchises cost so darn much these days, we may not even get to threats. Some wealthy folks might just buy the Pelicans from Gayle Benson with aims on relocating the team in or around 2024. This is what Clay Bennett and his group of Oklahomans did with the Sonics, except they pretended as though they really wanted to build a new gym in Seattle. They never did. It was all a ruse.

Bennett and friends needed to do that to break a lease for KeyArena and convince the other NBA franchise owners to abandon huge Seattle for small Oklahoma City. A new controlling partner for the Pelicans may not have to go to such extremes to leave New Orleans.

That’s quite sad for the Louisianians who have invested heart, dollars, and time in this franchise. But what is fandom if not invested sadness.

If the NBA still believes pro basketball belongs in New Orleans, Stern’s successor, Adam Silver, needs to engage quickly to prevent this process from unfolding. The Pelicans can have a future in New Orleans still, but only if the NBA and someone wealthy commit to the project just as David Stern and Tom Benson did over the last several years.