It’s now or never for the Raptors

Now that LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have survived the first round of the NBA playoffs, the fate of the Eastern Conference comes into focus. The raw, young Philadelphia 76ers and resilient, injured Boston Celtics will fight for one spot in the East finals, starting Monday (8 p.m. ET, TNT).

The other bid will go to the Cavaliers — the tired, confused, confusing Cavaliers — or the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors are the only team among the four who require no label. Everyone else has a ready excuse that everyone will buy. Everyone else can lose in the second round and simply be disappointed. The Cavaliers would spin into crisis not due to a playoff exit (one that looks increasingly likely at this point) but because of James’ looming free agency. The Sixers would lament a missed opportunity but have faith that they will be heard from for years to come. The Celtics would count the days until Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward returned to action.

The Raptors, though — losing now would crush this team.

Frankly, this is all built on the expectations game. Toronto was the No. 1 seed during the regular season, clearly the best, most consistent team in the East. The Raptors were the only team that held its own with the Warriors and Rockets both on the court and in the ledger. Toronto was a +7.8 in average scoring margin this season, No. 2 behind Houston (+8.5) and ahead of Golden State (+6). The closest East team was Philadelphia at +4.5. That’s a substantial gap! Boston was another point per game back, and Cleveland was barely above break-even this season.

On paper, the Raptors were by far the best East team this season.

On paper, Toronto has drawn the lightest second round foe, too. As noted, the Cavaliers were barely above-average this season, despite winning 50 games. Cleveland needed seven games to beat the Pacers despite everyone but George Hill being healthy. The Cavaliers were outscored by 40 points in the series despite winning it 4-3 — that’s usually an indication of a problem.

James, who has played more minutes than any other NBA players since October, told the world he was too exhausted at the end of Sunday’s Game 7 to think about Toronto.

This is all woven into the narrative surrounding the Raptors’ quest ahead.

That may not be fair: results are results, and losing to a 50-win team with a top-three all-time player is hardly the biggest indictment possible. Stripped of the narrative, should Toronto lose this series, the Raptors would still have had worse playoff outcomes.

But the context adds a couple layers of symbolism here that would be hard to overstate. This series means more than those that came before.

James ejected Toronto from the playoffs in each of the past two seasons: a 4-2 victory in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2016 as the Cavaliers went on to win the championship, and a merciless sweep in the second round last year. Those were tough losses, especially in 2017. The ejection brought serious questions about Toronto’s future, especially with Kyle Lowry’s free agency hanging in the wind and Dwane Casey’s tenure at a fulcrum.

Toronto didn’t panic. The Raptors, led by mastermind Masai Ujiri, saw a future in its core and revamped the team’s identity without revamping the roster. It worked ... to this point. Now it will be tested.

If this new version of the Raptors falls short to a tired, broken, flailing Cavaliers team, some measure of hope will be lost in Toronto. That doesn’t mean Ujiri will fire Casey, trade Lowry, or question the centrality of DeMar DeRozan. But everything would be on the table, and the Raptors would find little faith supporting their cause in the future. If the Raptors fail now, no one will believe they can ever reign in the East.

The twist is that one expects the East to get tougher next season, even if James moves west. Boston is sitting on two all-stars in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Philadelphia’s core is young and learning, and they will likely grab one more high lottery pick (Sacramento’s 2019 selection) acquired during The Process. The Sixers also have space for a major free agent, and James has seemingly been flirting with Philadelphia and his protegé of sorts, Ben Simmons. The Pacers are tough and look poised to improve, as well. One would think the Bucks will be a threat with a new coach and another year for Giannis Antetokounmpo to develop.

There will never be a better time for a team like the Raptors to make the NBA Finals. It’s been too hard before, and it will be too hard in the future.

No, the Raptors won’t turn into pumpkins if they lose this series. Toronto would still be competitive for the No. 1 seed next year, depending on how the other teams adjust. The Raptors would still be one of the teams in play to advance out of the East.

But the odds decrease as the Celtics get their top players back and the Sixers gain experience. Luck is a huge factor in success, and Toronto is lucky to be peaking right now as the Cavaliers fall apart, as the Celtics temporarily lack their stars, as the Sixers are on the upswing but not quite in full possession of their powers.

Now or never? Not quite. But if not now, when? The path to the NBA Finals is never easy, not for anyone. When a team finds a clear trail, they’d better take it. All the Raptors see is daylight right now.

That is, unless James steps in the way, as he always seems to do.