Our picks for the biggest upsets of the second round of World Cup group matches

We’ve made it through the first round of group stage matches at the 2018 World Cup, and it was a wild six days of action. We had four outright upsets, including Iran over Morocco, Japan over Colombia, and Senegal wrapping up the first round of matches with a 2-1 win over Poland. Meanwhile, Mexico’s win over Germany was the biggest upset so far, according to odds. Add in three unexpected ties, and you’re probably best suited not actually wagering on these games!

The second round of group stage matches begins with Russia facing Egypt on Tuesday. That will be followed by 15 matches the next five days. The surprises of the first six days have us pondering what craziness might unfold over the next week. SB Nation writers took a look through the list of odds for the second round of matches and picked what they think will be the biggest upset.

Here is OddsShark’s list odds for these matches, sorted from biggest underdog to smallest underdog. Who do you see as the biggest upset this week?

Uruguay (-650) vs. Saudi Arabia (+1800)
England (-575) vs. Panama (+1800)
Brazil (-556) vs. Costa Rica (+1700)
Spain (-600) vs. Iran (+1700)
Belgium (-360) vs. Tunisia (+1000)
Germany (-252) vs. Sweden (+750)
France (-185) vs. Peru (+550)
Mexico (-175) vs. South Korea (+525)
Portugal (-165) vs. Morocco (+525)
Denmark (-111) vs. Australia (+345)
Russia (-105) vs. Egypt (+330)
Argentina (+100) vs. Croatia (+290)
Senegal (+115) vs. Japan (+250)
Colombia (+135) vs. Poland (+215)
Switzerland (+155) vs. Serbia (+200)
Iceland (+165) vs. Nigeria (+190)

I’m gonna be honest, there’s not a lot of value here. The favorites are favorites for a reason during this round of games. But France really did not look convincing against Australia, one of the worst teams in the tournament. France didn’t look convincing in qualifying or warm-up friendlies either. Peru was pretty unlucky against Denmark, they missed a penalty and got denied by a great goalkeeper.

Fuck it. England struggled to break down a Tunisia side that was committed to hanging back and defending tough, and Panama is exactly like that, only more so. Panama is going to kick the hell out of them, and defend like maniacs, and they’re going to be tough to break down. Someone is going to get CONCACAF’ed in this tournament, and England has to England at some point, so why not take a flyer.

I know next to nothing about soccer, but I’m going with Mexico having a hangover from their win over Germany. Mexico could just roll through the group stage with ease, but I’ll go with the second match hiccup.

I’m a homer. A shameless unabashed homer who apologizes for nothing. Australia played about as poorly as they could have in their opening game against France, AND got robbed in the end — they still only lost 2-1. Meanwhile Denmark had to fight for a 1-0 win over Peru.

This is Australia’s time to shine.

Perhaps Croatia aren’t huge outsiders here, but this will still be a possible competition winner losing to a dark horse. And here’s why it’s going to happen: 1. Croatia have a functional midfield, where Argentina don’t. And 2. Lionel Messi is going to miss every single penalty he takes between now and the heat death of the universe. Which means that Croatia’s possibly-dodgy defense can take it easy. Just have a kick, lads. No danger.