MLB trade rumor grade: Are the Cubs interested in Cole Hamels?

Cole Hamels has a 4.72 ERA, but that’s okay, because his FIP is 5.20. He’s five homers away from tying his career high, and he leads the American League in HBP. There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Hamels, and only one of them is the fact that he’s 34 years old and owed several million dollars (including a $6 million buyout for next season.)

Hamels is a living, breathing pile of caveat emptor, which is perfect for the 2018 MLB trade deadline.

And it would appear that the Cubs are interested.

The Rumor

Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that the Cubs are “making inroads” in their efforts to acquire Hamels. I am taking this tweet very literally and picturing people in hard hats with pickaxes trying to make this trade happen. The Cubs’ rotation is in disarray, which is one of the reasons they’re using so many position players to pitch. Could this be a fit for them?

It makes sense if your scouts are telling them emphatically that Hamels can still anchor a rotation, and you really, really, really trust your scouts.

Because the stats aren’t pretty. It’s not like he’s suffering from a freaky-high BABIP, and his FIP isn’t whispering secrets about his ERA being a liar. He’s getting hit hard and giving up lots of runs, which is kinda sorta the opposite of what he’s supposed to do.

The raw stuff might be a different story. His velocity isn’t bad (he’s throwing as hard as he was from 2006 through 2013), and his strikeout rate rebounded from a career-worst mark set last year. He’s still getting batters to chase as much as he has in the past, and he’s still missing bats. This would actually be the fourth-best contact rate of his career.

But if you’re a believer in the metrics that describe the quality of contact, you’ll find that Hamels is getting absolutely crushed this year compared to previous seasons. When he allows a fly ball, it’s going out of the park at nearly twice the rate of his career averages.

The Cubs would want him, though, because it sure looks like his floor is that of a league-average pitcher who can absorb innings. He’s had an extremely rough July, but he’s pitched into the sixth inning in 16 of his 20 starts this year. The Cubs are having problems with starters getting bounced early, so they’ll take all the help they can get.

Hamels’ ceiling is that of something much more than a league-average pitcher. His ERA is unfortunate now, yes, but don’t forget that Justin Verlander’s ERA was close to 5.00 at the start of the second half last year, too. It probably would have made more sense to pay attention to his career rather than a couple months, and that might go for Hamels, too. He was worth about three wins above replacement last year, and five the year before that, so maybe those are the signs we should be paying attention to.

Maybe, from the Cubs’ perspective, it’s a good thing he’s struggling. Keeps the costs low. It’s possible that Hamels is just a boring innings-eater who is closer to replacement level than the All-Star Game, but that kind of pitcher would still help the Cubs. If the first half is a blip, they might get much more.

Money, for sure. But have you seen the Rangers lately? They’re bad. They aren’t going to exercise Hamels’ option over the offseason, and they would be extremely wary of offering him a qualifying offer, too. They need to get what they can right now, even if they need to pay down salary to do it.

They aren’t going to get a quarter of the prospects it took to get Hamels, but baseball sure likes to pluck your nose hairs out, one by one. If they can get one interesting guy — just one — they’ll have done themselves a favor. Without a trade, they’re on the hook for roughly $14 million. With a trade, they’ll probably be on the hook for $10 million and have a prospect to boot. That’s a win.

Rumor grade

I’ll give this one a B. The Cubs thought they were set with a rotation of Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish/Chatwood, but, boy, has that been a mixed bag. Getting a semi-reliable starter is a definite priority for them, and it would make sense that they’re looking for some cost certainty, especially when it shouldn’t take the organization’s best prospects.

I, for one, would be very interested to see the Yankees hit against Lester, Quintana, and Hamels in the World Series, but that’s because I’m a troll. If you don’t look at spookily specific situations of lefty-heavy doom, this trade rumor makes sense.