The point total for Super Bowl 53 has been installed as the second highest of all time, which means we can probably assume there will be a decent amount of scoring. Even if we get an unexpected defensive contest, we’re all but certain to have at least one touchdown. No Super Bowl has ever gone without a touchdown, and the NFL’s offensive evolution suggests that won’t change anytime soon barring a wild quirk.
Why Rex Burkhead is the best sleeper pick for first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 53
For a guy who missed half the season, things have gone well of late for Burkhead.
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images
Naturally, you can bet on who will score the first touchdown of the game. If you think this is finally the year we don’t see a touchdown, the folks at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas are willing to give you 1,000/1 odds on this particular prop bet. Sure, it means a big pay day if it happens, but in reality it’s a sucker bet.
Whereas Tom Brady and Jared Goff have the best odds to win Super Bowl MVP, they have some of the longest odds when it comes to scoring the first touchdown. This is about who gets into the end zone, so a quarterback passing to a wide receiver means the wide receiver counts for the score. That means Goff and Brady’s best hopes to win this bet are either a scramble down inside the 10, or maybe a version of Philly Special.
The running backs are the favorites in this wager, with Sony Michel leading the way at 6/1, followed by Todd Gurley (7/1), C.J. Anderson (8/1), and James White (10/1). Defensive players are slotted in under “Field” which is sitting at 7/1. It’s not much of a value play given the unlikelihood of players not included on the list below.
Gurley leads the Rams with 23 touchdowns. He has one touchdown each of the team’s two playoff games, but his usage was questionable in the NFC title game. Robert Woods is next on the list for the Rams with seven touchdowns. The best value might be C.J. Anderson, who only has four touchdowns this season for the Rams, but had two against Dallas and got more work than Gurley in the NFC title game.
Over the course of 18 games between the regular season and postseason, the Patriots have scored 61 touchdowns, and the Rams have scored 65 touchdowns. White leads the Patriots with 12 touchdowns, while Sony Michel’s five postseason touchdowns shot him up to 11 total on the season. It hasn’t been particularly close after that, with Julian Edelman currently at six touchdowns on the season.
Sleeper pick
The best sleeper value for either team is Rex Burkhead at 18/1. He missed half the season, and did not score his first touchdown until Week 17. However, including that game, he has scored in three straight games, with three in the playoffs. Add in a bad Rams run defense, and you probably won’t find a better sleeper for this kind of prop bet.
Here is a full rundown of “player to score first touchdown” odds, via the Westgate SuperBook.
Patriots
Sony Michel: 6/1
Julian Edelman: 10/1
James White: 10/1
Rob Gronkowski: 12/1
Chris Hogan: 12/1
Phillip Dorsett: 15/1
Rex Burkhead: 18/1
Cordarrelle Patterson: 40/1
Tom Brady: 60/1
Rams
Todd Gurley: 7/1
C.J. Anderson: 8/1
Brandin Cooks: 8/1
Robert Woods: 8/1
Josh Reynolds: 12/1
Gerald Everett: 25/1
Tyler Higbee: 25/1
Jared Goff: 50/1
Jojo Natson: 100/1
FIELD: 7/1
NO TOUCHDOWN SCORED: 1000/1
