NFL picks 2019: Holding out hope for Chargers, Colts divisional round upsets

If you have the New Orleans Saints penciled in as one of your Super Bowl picks, we have some good news for you. Almost everyone on our panel of, ahem, experts sees the Saints beating the Eagles this weekend and advancing to the conference championship. But if you’re wondering who the Saints might end up playing next weekend or as a potential Super Bowl entrant, the answer gets much cloudier.

Outside of that Eagles-Saints game, this looks to be an extraordinarily tough week to predict which teams will win their Divisional Round matchups. There’s no consensus to be found.

Perhaps our panel got a little spooked after last week. It was a brutal one for picks. The coin — the damn coin — tied for the best record in the Wild Card Round with 3-1. Everyone else was lucky to get one game right. The home teams lost three of the four games.

It might have been a testament to momentum being a real actual thing — and not just something we made fun of Jason Garrett for in Week 17 when he decided to play his starters in a meaningless game.

If momentum is a factor here, than one of these resting giants is bound to lose, at least one. But which one?

The Chiefs are always ripe for an upset in the playoffs. Last year’s loss at Arrowhead Stadium to the Titans wasn’t even their most memorable postseason choke job. The worst one since the Marty Ball era in Kansas City happened in January 2014, when the Chiefs blew a 28-point lead. And guess who they lost to in that one? That’s right, Andrew Luck and the Colts. This is a better Kansas City team than that one, but you can say the same thing about the Colts. This time the Colts have the kind of defense that can really put the brakes on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.

Three of the eight picks this week are for the Colts.

Another game that feels like an upset waiting to happen is the Cowboys at Rams. There’s a similar dynamic at play here as the Colts-Chiefs matchup: a mighty offense meets a tough defense. Dallas’ win over New Orleans late in the season reminded everyone that sometimes defense still does win things for a team. Plus, the Rams offense was rather anemic late in the season. They looked like they got their mojo back against the Cardinals in Week 16, but that was a game against the Cardinals.

We’ve got two picks for Dallas this week.

The Chargers are in New England to play the Patriots, and that game really has people tripped up. Tom Brady hasn’t looked like himself all season (though he certainly hasn’t looked bad). Bill Belichick left us all wondering about his seeming infallibility after an uncharacteristic misjudgment cost the Patriots a win against the Dolphins. And the Patriots in general just don’t look like the team we’re used to seeing.

However, they did manage to nab the second seed and a bye in the playoffs this year, and in case you forgot, the Patriots are tough to beat at home in January. That is not enough to convince three of our panelists that the home team will win, though.

OK, on with the picks. Computer picks come from OddsShark.