Update, 11/24: The Dolphins’ 41-24 loss to the Browns in Week 12 officially eliminated Miami from playoff contention. The good news? The tank is still on. Here’s a look at the scenario that would’ve gotten them into the postseason.
How the Dolphins could’ve accidentally made the playoffs when they’re trying to tank
The Dolphins’ chances at pulling off the NFL equivalent of the movie “Major League” were, well, not great.
Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
In 1992, the San Diego Chargers lost their first four games before winning 11 of their last 12 to win the AFC West. That’s the only time a team has ever started a season 0-4 and found its way into the postseason. But 0-7? Not even close.
The best a team has ever finished after losing its first seven games is 6-10. The Dolphins have a chance to beat that mark after winning back-to-back games to start November. They even have a tiny window into the postseason, which is kind of hilarious considering how far from competitive the team was early in the season.
The even funnier part is the idea of it coming during a year when the front office did everything in its power to make Miami the worst roster in the NFL. It’s basically the plot of Major League.
Catching the Patriots in the AFC East is impossible. New England is already at nine wins, while the best possible finish for Miami is 8-8. But a six-game win streak to finish the season could put the Dolphins in the wild card picture.
It’s still a tricky-ish scenario to sort out, though.
The Dolphins’ best bet would be for the Bills to grab one of the two wild card berths, especially after Buffalo already got a season sweep over Miami. It’d also help if the current division leaders in the AFC — the Patriots, Texans, Ravens, and Chiefs — all run away in their respective races.
That’d leave the Steelers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, and Titans as the five obstacles most likely to be in Miami’s way. The Dolphins’ win over Indianapolis could prove helpful, but a Week 8 loss to Pittsburgh hurts.
Here’s one potential finish to the year that gets Miami in the postseason, via ESPN’s Playoff Machine:
Of course, this could all disappear quickly in the likely case that the Dolphins lose another game. A Week 12 loss to the Browns would drop Miami to 2-9 and just about guarantee the wild card is out of reach.
It’s time to turn this tank around (not really, though).
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