Major League Baseball’s “Opening Day” is set for March 28, but the season kicks off bright and early Wednesday morning when the Oakland Athletics face the Seattle Mariners in the Tokyo Dome. The AL West rivals will play two games in Tokyo before returning to America to wrap up spring training.
Why the A’s and Mariners will finish above their Vegas win totals
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The Westgate SuperBook released win totals for all 30 MLB teams, and before we get into best bets across the board, we wanted to take a look at the A’s and Mariners specifically. The A’s are installed at 83 wins, while the Mariners are at 72.5. By comparison, Fangraph’s projections have the A’s at 84 wins and the Mariners at 75 wins.
We chatted with Alex Hall from Athletics Nation and Kate Preusser from Lookout Landing to get their thoughts on the win totals. Both see big question marks with their teams, but believe the state of their rosters coupled with the state of the bottom of the division opens the door for both teams to hit the over on relatively low numbers.
The A’s are a tough team to peg entering this season. A lot went right for them to win 97 games in 2018, and they lost one of their All-Stars in Jed Lowrie over the winter, so it’s easy to see an argument for them falling back significantly from that total. But they also have a few legitimate stars on hand, plus a deep lineup and bullpen that mask their weak rotation, and there are a few more top-100-caliber prospects expected to arrive this summer.
Preseason projection systems tend to be conservative, and that’s probably the safest way for Oakland fans to approach things emotionally after last year’s unexpected, exciting run. However, from a betting perspective, the Westgate Superbook mark of 83 wins seems like a worst-case scenario, and a lot would have to go wrong for the A’s to lose that much ground. The main questions are whether you think they can overcome a lackluster starting rotation once more (at a time when rotations are decreasing in importance around the league), and how much you believe in the young talent led by Matt Chapman (who finished seventh in MVP voting last summer). I’d bet the over on 83 wins, without thinking twice.
The Mariners at 72.5 sounds a little low to us, especially given that the Rangers and Angels are probably worse squads. While the Mariners’ starting pitching is no great shakes and the bullpen is most likely dreadful, we like Marco Gonzales the best out of any starter in the AL West, non-Astros edition. If the A’s promote Jesus Luzardo, that will change, but right now we like Marco, Kikuchi, a surprisingly effective Wade LeBlanc, and the ever-reliable-if-not-spectacular Mike Leake more than the rotation currently posited by the A’s, Rangers, and the Ohtani-less Angels (who also have a hurt Andrew Heaney).
The offensive upside for the Mariners, even without Kyle Seager, is also maybe only third-worst in the west, behind the Astros and A’s. The Mariners might be without Seager for a while but the Rangers will be without Adrian Beltre forever, and while Mitch Haniger isn’t Mike Trout, he’s also surrounded by a stronger supporting cast, especially outfield-mate Domingo Santana, whom the Brewers inexplicably traded to the Mariners for Ben Gamel. The Edwing might be bent slightly, but Jay Bruce has bounded into Seattle with a spring in his step and dingers in his bat. We’re not fooling ourselves that this 2019 Mariners team will be good — the team is still rebuilding — but in an anemic AL West, 75-plus wins doesn’t seem out of the question.
