The first round of the 2019 NFL Draft is a wrap, and it brought us quite the mix of chalky, expected picks and wild decisions sending us off the rails. The top three-picks ended up going exactly like recent mock drafts suggested, but then things went sideways when the Oakland Raiders drafted edge rusher Clelin Ferrell and the New York Giants drafted Daniel Jones. From there, it was a relatively quiet, but still fascinating first round.
Kyler Murray led wagers that cashed in during Round 1 of 2019 NFL Draft
It was a chalky first few picks, and a relatively quiet one for trades.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Bet your chalk
Kyler Murray emerged in March as the favorite to go No. 1 overall, followed by Nick Bosa, and then Quinnen Williams. As draft week rolled along, people (including me!) tried to make arguments why maybe Murray would not go No. 1. Would a team that drafted a first-round QB one year draft another one a year later without having dealt the previous one?
Sometimes it pays not to overthink things. Murray went first, followed by Bosa and then Williams. Murray consistently held the best odds to go No. 1, and Bosa and Williams had the best odds to go No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. What we thought was uncertainty turned out to be not so uncertain.
Things briefly went off the rails, then quieted down
The Raiders were trying to move around and had some interest in Bosa. I guess Clelin Ferrell was No. 2 on their edge rusher draft board. Meanwhile, the Giants needed a quarterback and most of the rumors surrounded Dwayne Haskins. Daniel Jones rumors popped up, but it was not as strong as Haskins.
The Giants shook things up drafting Jones, and then Haskins slipped to Washington at No. 15. And then that was it. There were no more quarterbacks in the first round. Drew Lock had gotten some pub as someone the Raiders might target with one of their three first-round picks, and Will Grier was mentioned as a potential Patriots target.
The over/under on quarterbacks selected was 3.5, with the over favored. And yet, Thursday ended with the under sliding in. Aside from Murray and Haskins, it’s a pretty crappy class of quarterbacks. Teams get desperate to find a franchise QB that has that fifth year option, and yet a few teams showed some admirable restraint.
A slow start to trades picked up speed in the final third
We regularly see numerous trades on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. 2019 was no different, but the timing was decidedly different.
We had two possible betting options for the first round. Offshore sportsbook sportsbetting.ag set the over/under on total first-round trades at 7.5, and then asked whether or not a top-10 pick would be dealt. For the latter prop bet, YES was installed as the favorite at -700 while NO was installed at +400.
YES cashed in at the last possible moment, when the Pittsburgh Steelers traded up for the Denver Broncos No. 10-overall pick. After that, there were no trades until pick No. 21. We saw trades of picks 21 and 22, then 26, and then 30 and 31. We had six trades, easily coming in under the total.
My favorite wager cashed
I didn’t get too heavily into things, but I did cash in on Alabama players drafted in the first round. The over/under was installed at 3.5, and I got even money betting on the under. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams went No. 3 and offensive tackle Jonah Williams went No. 11. Running back Josh Jacobs eventually went No. 24, but it did not seem like a particularly big sweat the rest of the way. The only other options were tight end Irv Smith and safety Deionte Thompson. Both remain on the board after Day 1, and so I cashed in.
