Al Horford is still the Celtics’ savior

For every harsh adjective used to describe the 2018-19 Boston Celtics, there’s an antonym that suits Al Horford. He’s consistent, methodical, and emotionally concrete. At 32, his game has ripened into a potpourri of selfless, measured decisions. In a league that now prioritizes skill and versatility, he thrives as a walking mismatch whose imperfections are masked by the gift to elevate everything around him. Horford is a rising tide; everybody else on the Celtics is a boat.

With off-court distractions, on-court regression, in-house squabbling, and unexpected stagnancy from several key players, Horford’s value has swelled even further over the past few months. The Celtics keep falling off the tracks this year, but they still have the ideal player to get them back on.

Horford sets the terms, well aware that there is no defensive scheme (or player) that can prevent him from doing what he wants to do without opening a door for Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, or any other teammate who can take advantage.

Whether he’s directing traffic from the elbow, engineering a dribble hand-off, pushing the ball in transition, drawing a double-team in the post, dragging his man to the corner, scurrying through myriad pick-and-roll coverages, or (he really does this!) darting off an unexpected pindown to launch an open three, Horford prevails as a cure-all balm who streamlines Boston’s attack in limitless ways. His game, in other words, is Whac-A-Mole, and the Celtics would untether themselves from anything close to championship contention if he wasn’t there.

As untrustworthy as Boston has looked since the all-star break, they still own a top-10 offense and the best defense in the league when Horford is in the game. When he sits, the Celtics lose their compass and get outscored by 13.2 points per 100 possessions.

According to Cleaning the Glass, only the Milwaukee Bucks and Warriors outscore teams at a higher rate than the version of the Celtics with Horford on the floor. If you strictly measure his impact on half-court offense, the Celtics are 10 points per 100 possessions better with him in the game, an effect that puts Horford among the likes of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Paul George.

The only time Boston has struggled with Horford has been on back-to-backs, which don’t exist in the playoffs. In those situations, they’ve been outscored by 2.3 points per 100 possessions. But with a day of rest, that negative turns to +5.8, then +6.2 when the team has two days off.

As capably as he governs an organized setting, Horford’s steady hand is even more notable when chaos is unavoidable. Look at this pass from Monday’s win over the Miami Heat:

Facing Miami’s 2-3 zone, Horford hunts gaps along the baseline before looping around to post-up Dwyane Wade. When Kyrie Irving’s entry pass gets poked away, Horford secures the ball and immediately finds Tatum in the opposite corner as the shot clock ticks towards zero.

It’s one of those thin-line plays that can tilt a game in either direction. Horford’s team usually wins them when he’s on the floor, and it should not surprise anyone that most of his teammates shoot the ball significantly better when he’s by their side. Aron Baynes, Smart, and Hayward all see their effective field goal percentage rise by more than 10 percentage points. Tatum and Brown’s go up six percent.

It’s hard selecting any one aspect of Horford’s game to explain all these numbers, but nothing is possible without his jumper. Horford’s three-point range is a backbreaker — he’s one of six centers to make at least 250 threes over the past three seasons. He’s also never been more lethal from the mid-range, with an accuracy only Durant looks down at (on a minimum 150 attempts).

He’s comfortable from everywhere, which means he’s always a threat. On pick-and-pops with Irving, Smart, or Hayward, he’ll flash to the elbow or slide down towards the baseline for a shot that’s now his own version of a layup.

When the screen is set higher on the floor and Horford stays above the three-point line, defenses face a dilemma: trap the ball and let Horford go surgical in a 4-on-3, drop the big and leave Horford wide open beyond the arc, or switch and concede a pair of mismatches. There’s no right answer.

From there, he’ll combine his strength and vision to either score himself or set up a teammate. Horford’s post game was Thor’s hammer during last year’s playoffs, but his strength is less about exploiting his own advantage and more about how he helps everyone else find one. Cutting lanes expand into a delta of opportunity as the opposition is forced into uncomfortable situations. When those options fail to materialize and the defense refuses to budge, Horford will flex in a way that demoralizes them.

On a young team that melts into a pool of doubt when he’s not there, the complementary traits that make Horford great have matured into cherished touchstones. They’ve also made his future increasingly relevant as he decides whether to stay in Boston. His value to Boston is humongous, but even with a $30.1 million player option this summer, Horford should waltz into unrestricted free agency with a sought after skill-set, tacked onto a placid persona that commands respect.

For teams with cap space that are prepared to take a meaningful step forward, Horford should be seen as more than a consolation prize. Imagine him reinventing Utah’s closing lineups and giving Donovan Mitchell even more space to carve up the paint. What about the Dallas Mavericks, where Horford and Kristaps Porzingis would be incredible on both ends together? If LeBron James can’t land any max free agents, what’s the harm bringing Horford in? Their timelines line up. What about the Clippers, assuming they land Kawhi Leonard? The New York Knicks, assuming they land Durant? What about Brooklyn, a team desperate for frontcourt aid that already dreams of turning Jarrett Allen into Horford 2.0? How about a dark-horse suitor like the Milwaukee Bucks, where he’d play for his former coach, Mike Budenholzer?

Horford won’t sign elsewhere if Irving stays, and even if his all-star point guard leaves, uprooting his family to play for an unfamiliar organization may not interest him. Lingering knee soreness, coupled with a $100 million-plus contract that may pay him until he’s 36, warrants caution. But, so long as he isn’t asked to score 25 a night, Horford is the missing piece several teams around the league desperately need.

Horford is not perfect. He still isn’t a first option or self-reliant shot creator, and don’t expect him to roll out of bed and grab 15 rebounds. But as Boston readies itself for a critical postseason run, he’s one of the only players alive who can remove Joel Embiid from his comfort zone, momentarily make Giannis Antetokounmpo look human, and turn matchups against the Golden State Warriors into basketball’s own version of the movie Us. He’s everything.

During the most efficient year of Horford’s career, with free agency around the corner, and the stakes higher than they’ve ever been, a spotlight should shine on everything he means and all that makes him important. Even if he lacks glamour and his natural instinct is to deflect that attention towards everybody else, Horford deserves it.