Joe Burrow and the Bengals still can’t figure out NFL defenses’ go-to coverage

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals knew going into the season the biggest question they would need to solve on offense this year.

After five games they are still searching for the answer.

After Sunday night’s 19-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Bengals sit at 2-3 on the season, tied with the Cleveland Browns a game behind Baltimore. While much of the discussion in the wake of the loss has focused on head coach Zac Taylor and his ... creative playcalling down in the red zone during a critical stretch, that big question remains unanswered.

How to deal with two-high safety looks from opposing defenses.

Scoring is down league-wide, and the paradigm shift towards two-high defenses is viewed as a prime culprit. How to address those defenses was the biggest question heading into 2022 facing Cincinnati, and they knew it.

Back during training camp, Burrow believed he and the Bengals had the answer:

This leads us to some football conventional wisdom. If the defense is going to play with two safeties deep, then as an offense you can slowly run them out of that look. You will face lighter boxes as a result, a tried-and-true recipe for running the ball, and you can lean into the advantage in gaps you find with that second safety kept deep.

For example, if you face a six-man box, and have your five offensive linemen and a tight end in the box, while the body count is even, the gaps are not. The defense has six defenders in the box to account for seven gaps, and if the offense is creative enough, they can create additional gaps through zone run schemes, leaving a defender unblocked and creating an extra gap through design.

The conventional wisdom holds that eventually, defenses will tire of giving up big plays on the ground, and drop one of those safeties into the box and play with single-high coverage. That is when you go to the air, as Burrow outlined back in the summer.

Cincinnati’s problem right now? Defenses are not playing along, and with good reason. The Bengals have enjoyed success on the ground this year running against two-high. According to this piece from Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus, Cincinnati has gained 185 yards on 39 rushes this season against two-deep looks. That works out to 0.123 Expected Points Added per rush, a very solid number when the ball is kept on the ground. For comparison, here is a look at passing and rushing efficiency from across the league:

The problem? Defenses in this era are fine making that trade and giving up those kinds of numbers on the ground, and as such will stay in those two-deep looks to protect against more explosive plays downfield.

Compounding that problem for the Bengals is the success — or lack thereof — Cincinnati has enjoyed this year throwing against two-high looks. Entering Week 4, Burrow had attempted 64 passes against two-high coverages, according to charting data from Sports Info Solutions? On those plays he posted an EPA/attempt of -0.126.

Against Baltimore on Sunday night, Burrow attempted another 20 throws against two-high looks, according to SIS charting data. He completed 14 of those for 118 yards, a touchdown and an interception, posting an NFL passer rating of 80.8, an Adjusted Yards per Attempt of 3.5, and an EPA/attempt of -0.277.

Not only are defenses willing to stay in two-high against Cincinnati this year, even when the Bengals have had success on the ground against those looks, the Bengals struggled to find ways to throw consistently against those coverages.

If Cincinnati cannot run teams out of two-high, they need to find ways to throw them out of those coverages. Two-high coverages tend to have two soft spots: The middle of the field between the safeties, and deep to the outside along the sidelines, sometimes called the “Turkey Hole,” with throws into those areas warmly referred to as “hole shots:”

We can start with that second category. Last season those types of throws — often to Ja’Marr Chase — led to some big plays for the Bengals’ passing game. Whether it was this completion against the Ravens back in Week 16 a year ago:

Or this play against the Kansas City Chiefs the following week, aided by perhaps a defensive lapse in the secondary:

That success attacking along the boundaries against two-deep the Bengals enjoyed last season has yet to materialize in 2022. Their options downfield are limited right now, and Burrow spoke about that after the loss to the Ravens:

Now, going forward the thinking could be simply: “call plays designed to beat these coverages.” It is often not that simple, but beyond that basic point, what could those kinds of plays look like? Or generally speaking, what would the goal be for those kinds of plays?

If two-high coverages have a weakness along the boundaries in the passing game (but those plays are not producing like they were a year ago) and a weakness against the run (but opponents are willing to give up plays on the ground to remain protected against more explosive passing plays) then what is left?

Attacking the middle of the field.

Right now Burrow and the Bengals are not stressing defenses between those two-deep safeties. Here is his 2022 passing grid, according to Next Gen Stats:

What did this look like last year?

Last year, Burrow put up better numbers attacking the middle of the field than he is right now. If you are a two-deep safety facing the Bengals last season, you might worry a bit more about protecting the middle of the field, and then be a step late breaking towards the boundaries as a result.

Right now? Cincinnati is not giving defenses a consistent reason for those safeties to worry about the middle of the field, so they are free to be more aggressive pushing to the outside. Take this play from Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Burrow does get moved off his spot, but watch how the safeties play this route concept:

Their focus — perhaps rightly so — is on Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside, and not Tyler Boyd attacking between them.

Or consider this snap against the New York Jets in Week 3, which again finds Boyd splitting the safeties, and Burrow going elsewhere with the football:

Then consider Sunday night against the Ravens. Here is Burrow’s passing grid from the loss:

As you can see, the vast majority of Burrow’s throws came near the line of scrimmage, and towards the outside. Rarely did he attack the middle of the field, and when he did, it was a mixed bag. There was this interception on a play-action design where Burrow tried to target Chase early in the second half:

This play is a good design to attack a two-deep safety look, with wide receiver Mike Thomas splitting the safeties with a deep post route while Chase runs a dig route underneath them. The problem? Patrick Queen does a great job of getting underneath the dig route after sliding downhill in response to a run fake.

Of course, this also leads us to the issue of the run/pass splits with the Bengals this season when Burrow is under center, and for more on that you can read this meaty piece from the one and only Benjamin Solak, but I digress...

But there was also this glimmer of hope, coming before halftime in the form of a touchdown to tight end Hayden Hurst. With Baltimore in a two-deep, Quarters coverage, Burrow attacked the middle of the field, connecting with Hurst for a touchdown:

Plays like this are what the Bengals need more of at the moment.

Because the conventional wisdom is not fixing this issue. Despite their success running the football against two-deep looks, defenses are not playing along with the conventional wisdom. Rather than dropping a safety down into the box and playing with single-high — giving Burrow the chance to target one-on-one matchups along the outside — defenses are sticking in two-deep and daring the Bengals to beat them through the air. They are not taking the bait.

And so far, the Bengals have not found the right answer to this test. The inconsistencies in attacking the middle of the field in the passing game have allowed safeties to creep closer towards the sidelines, even letting receivers run free in the middle of the field, to take away those throws Burrow hit on last year to Chase, along the boundaries.

Until Burrow and the Bengals give those safeties something else to think about, what we have seen so far this year will continue.