Geno Smith has the Seahawks ahead of schedule

Everyone around the NFL world thought the Seattle Seahawks were starting their rebuild this season. With the Russell Wilson trade, and the departure of Bobby Wagner, it looked as if the organization was turning the page on the Wilson/Legion of Boom Era, and moving towards the future. 2022 would be a season of transition, as the team looked ahead to finding their new quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Everyone thought that was the plan.

Except the Seahawks themselves.

While people like me were mocking quarterbacks to the Seahawks inside the top five picks in “way too early” mock drafts last spring, those inside the organization were saying something completely different.

Take safety Josh Jones, who said this during training camp:

The word ‘rebuild,’ to me, I don’t like that word. You don’t do that going into a football season. That ain’t what you do. You’re looking to get your ass kicked. I don’t want to be part of that, and that’s not what we preaching. We come out here every day, we work hard, we compete and we looking to take it week by week, but ain’t none of that [rebuild].

Cornerback Quandre Diggs shared a similar sentiment when he reached a new deal with the team, staying in Seattle despite other departures:

I’ve just got to trust in what I’ve been told and what we’ve talked about. It’s kind of hard to see Pete [Carroll] want a full rebuild. It’s just the way he’s wired, the way he’s triggered, he’s all about competing and winning every day. That’s always been his deal. For me to think that he’s not in it to win it, it would be crazy for me to believe that. For me, I’m just trusting in what I’ve been told and I’m going to do my job to make sure it’s not a rebuild and just go out there and make plays and try to help as much as I can.

Of course, teams and their players can say anything they want to during a press conference or a media scrum, but what they do in terms of roster construction often is a better indication of how a team perceives their present, and future. Seattle’s moves at quarterback — or lack thereof — seemed at the time to be an indication they were eying the 2023 draft class as part of a rebuild.

The team went into training camp with Geno Smith and Drew Lock, acquired in the Wilson trade, as their top two options at the position. While the 2022 quarterback class was perhaps lacking in star power, the Seahawks had multiple options to add a QB early in the draft. When the Seahawks were on the clock with the ninth-overall selection, they could have taken any quarterback on the board.

But with a glaring need at offensive tackle, they added Charles Cross, the third tackle taken in the first round.

Then at the top of the second round, the Seahawks had back-to-back picks at 40 and 41 overall. Sam Howell, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corrall, and Bailey Zappe were all available.

Seattle drafted pass rusher Boye Mafe and running back Kenneth Walker III.

Then again, when the Seahawks were on the clock at the start of the third round, the situation was the same. That same group of quarterbacks remained available, but the team double-dipped at tackle, adding Abraham Lucas.

At the time, I viewed this as a clear sign that teams like Seattle were so down on this last quarterback class, that teams with a need at the position were willing to punt on it for a season, hoping to strike gold in the 2023 NFL draft.

Yet, looking back, perhaps that was the wrong message to take away from Seattle’s decisions.

After all, during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Carroll and the Seahawks got an extended look at Smith as he was the backup behind Wilson. Last year, while Wilson recovered from his hand injury, Smith played in four games and made three starts, completing 68.4% of his passes for 702 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with an interception. The Seahawks won just one of those games, but Smith played well.

Revisiting those three games over the summer, I wrote this about him when discussing his ability to stay and fight in the pocket:

Staying and fighting in the pocket is one of the toughest things for a quarterback to do. It flies in the face of all human emotion. Large men are coming to do you harm, and while instincts might tell you to run for the hills — as they told me so many times over the years — the ability to stay within the pocket, create space and keep the offense on structure is a tremendous skill for a quarterback to have. That keeps as many options in the concept in play for the quarterback rather than immediately cutting the field in half, forcing defenses to still defend “every blade of grass.”

If Smith can unleash that trait as much as possible, in tandem with the others discussed, he’ll not only earn the starting job in Seattle…but he’ll keep it.

Studying Smith over the summer led me to the conclusion that he might not just win the starting job in Seattle, he would keep it.

Perhaps the team saw the same things from him.

Because look at Smith now. The veteran quarterback has led the Seahawks to a 4-3 record, thanks to their most recent win over the summertime media darlings, the Los Angeles Chargers. On the season, Smith has completed 73.5% of his passes for 1,712 yards and 11 touchdowns, against just 3 interceptions. Smith’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) of 7.21 is fifth in the NFL, behind only Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.

In terms of efficiency — measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) — look where Smith stacks up right now:

Smith’s CPOE of 8.6 is the best in the league, and an absurd mark when you both step back and look at the league as a whole, and give it some context. Smith’s CPOE is followed by Kenny Pickett at 5.8, and then Mahomes at 4.1, so the Seattle passer has truly set himself apart. But consider that his Average Intended Air Yards of 8.3 is 12th most in the league — and ahead of both Pickett and Mahomes — you get the sense of just how well Smith is playing right now.

These numbers are backed up by what we are seeing from Smith each week on film. Plays like this deep shot to Tyler Lockett for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints:

At first blush, this looks like a bad decision from Smith. The Seahawks are running a two-receiver vertical concept into the teeth of Quarters coverage, so when Smith lets this go, the Saints have four defenders to cover Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. But Smith puts this throw into an absolutely perfect spot, and Lockett completes the play for a touchdown.

Or there is Smith’s pocket poise, perhaps best exemplified by this play against the Detroit Lions. The defense attacks the pocket with a Cover 0 blitz, but Smith hangs in there in the face of pressure before connecting with Lockett on a deep post route:

In Sunday’s win over the Chargers, fans saw even more examples of how Smith is playing at a high level, starting with this completion to Marquise Goodwin:

This play is designed to go to the right side, where the Seahawks have four receivers as the play begins. Smith uses a half-roll in that direction, but in the face of an unblocked Kyle Van Noy off the edge, he has to improvise. That leads him to the other side of the field, where he spots Goodwin on a crossing route. Smith takes advantage of the open receiver, hitting him in space for a 21-yard gain.

The two would connect just before halftime on this vertical route along the left sideline for a touchdown, to extend Seattle’s lead:

Smith brings his eyes to the middle of the field at the snap, and once he sees the coverage rotation in the secondary — with the safety to the left side of the offense rotating to the middle of the field — the QB knows he has a chance to hit the streaking Goodwin. He makes the right decision with the football, and Goodwin finishes the play with the touchdown.

From my vantage point, however, Smith’s best play on Sunday — and perhaps the entire season — came late in the third quarter. Facing a 2nd and 6, the Seahawks line up with Smith under center and with two tight ends in the game. They run play-action, and use max protection on the play, as just Lockett and D’Wayne Eskridge run vertical routes. Eskridge runs a deep curl route in the middle of the field, while Lockett runs a deep comeback route along the right sideline, after first selling the cornerback on an out-and-up route.

Even with max protection in front of him, Smith has a rusher bearing down on him, so his throw to Lockett comes with incredible anticipation:

This is another absurd throw in a season filled with them from Smith.

In this case, the numbers and the film combine to tell the same story: Smith is playing at an elite level right now.

What that means for the Seahawks in 2022 is self-evident. Seattle sits at 4-3 in the NFC West, in first place ahead of the 3-3 Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers, who are sport matching 3-4 records.

Looking ahead, the Seahawks still have six games left at home, including a rematch with the 49ers and meetings with the New York Giants this week and the New York Jets on New Year’s Day, games that look a bit tougher than they did when the schedule was released. In the next three weeks, Seattle hosts the Giants, and then has a chance to sweep the Cardinals before making a trip east to take on Tom Brady and the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Meaning Seattle has a chance to reach their bye week with a 7-3 record if things break their way.

Obviously, the fact that we are having this discussion speaks to what Smith’s play has meant to the Seahawks this season. But the bigger story might be what it means to Seattle for 2023 and beyond.

At the outset, moves like the Wilson trade have given the Seahawks a lot of financial flexibility in 2023. According to OverTheCap.com, Seattle at the moment has $52,960,788 in cap space available for 2023, which is fifth-most in the NFL.

(For those wondering, like our dear friend Ricky O’Donnell, the Chicago Bears have over $100 million in cap space available for next season, so perhaps they will add some talent to that roster next spring?)

So the Seahawks are in position to add a lot of talent via free agency next spring.

But that is not all.

Right now, if the 2023 NFL Draft were to happen today, the Seahawks would have four picks in the first two rounds. They would be picking sixth overall, courtesy of the Wilson trade, before their own selection at 23 overall. Then they would be on the clock again at 37 overall — Denver’s current second-round selection — before their own current pick at 54.

That is a chance to add a lot of talent, through both free agency and the draft, and even if Smith were struggling, there would still be this light at the end of the tunnel. The Seahawks would be where we expected them to be, looking at free agency or more likely the draft to solve a pressing need at the quarterback position.

But ... what if they do not need to go down that road?

With the way Smith is playing, he has given Seattle options at the position. Sure, if they end up with a top-five pick in the draft thanks to the Wilson trade and their favorite player is staring them in the face, and it happens to be a quarterback, they can make that pick. Smith’s success this season would give them the ability to be patient with that rookie QB.

However, Smith’s pay this year has put the Seahawks in an ideal position, where they do not need to force a quarterback decision in the draft just for the sake of throwing assets at the position. They can be patient, and wait until later in the first round or the second, or even punt the position altogether. They could also decide to trade down, acquire future assets along the way, and load up for a quarterback in the 2024 draft cycle.

All told, Smith’s play this season has given them options. Options that last summer did not seem available to them. We all though that Seattle would be forced into the quarterback market this offseason, whether via free agency or the draft. We all thought that the rebuild was upon us from the Seahawks.

Their players and coaches told us otherwise.

Perhaps we should have listened.