What the hell is wrong with the Cardinals?

Question: does anyone know what’s wrong with the Cardinals?

Sure, they’re 2-2 and coming off of a victory over the Carolina Panthers.

However, offensively they still haven’t found their groove, despite boasting a top 12 QB in Kyler Murray and supposed offensive mastermind Kliff Kingsbury at head coach. The Cardinals are 14th in points per game, 12th in points per drive and 15th in EPA per play. Football Outsiders has their passing DVOA at 25th in the league, and they’re 14th in rushing DVOA. The passing offense has simply not been as effective as it was last year, when they were ninth in EPA/play.

Against the Panthers, the Cardinals slogged to a 26-16 victory where they posted a -0.07 EPA per play and a 27% first down rate. If it weren’t for the Panthers being the poster child for offensive ineptitude, the Cardinals would’ve been in a rock fight.

That first down rate is interesting as well, when you compare it to every game they played this season. Through four games, they have a 29% first down rate. Compare that to last year, and they had a 34.25% first down rate through four games.

When you turn on the film from the Cardinals first four games this season, it looks a lot like this:

And a lot of this:

Occasionally you get this:

But overall it’s a lot of this:

The Cardinals offense is largely predicated on QB Kyler Murray being awesome, and receivers turning 50-50 chances into 90-10’s. As well as Hollywood Brown has played to start this season, he’s 46th in DVOA and has an average Yards Per Route Run of 1.8 yards.

In fact, the entire Cardinals offense has shrunken down to almost a shell of itself, which is already a college style offense. Through four games, Murray’s Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is 5.8 yards, 31st in the entire league, according to Sports Info Solutions. Last year, in the same time period, his aDOT was 7.4 yards, 23rd in the league. The Cardinals offense looks like it’s difficult to generate first downs and move the ball—because it is.

The Cardinals don’t have a good enough receiver that can generate first downs in Deandre Hopkins’ stead. Hopkins was suspended for the first six games, and while it was known that the Cardinals would miss his play on the outside, Arizona’s offense has become sluggish without him moving the chains. Through the first four games of the season this season, Greg Dortch leads the Cardinals in first down percentage (min. 10 targets). His first down percentage? 50%. In the same time period last year, Deandre Hopkins’ first down percentage was an absurd 70.6%.

If the Cardinals offense is going to be so predicated on winning isolated matchups, then they need to win those matchups. AJ Green, who had a renaissance year last year in said department, is going to have to repeat it (so far, his first down percentage is 40% on 13 targets). Marquise Brown is going to need more consistency in winning those matchups, as well as Zach Ertz.

Above all else, Kliff Kingsbury needs to put his guys in better positions to succeed. Through four games the Cardinals lead the NFL in total targets to receivers running a curl, comeback or go route, isolated routes that require the receiver beating the coverage. Their EPA per target? 0.05, 19th in the NFL. They simply aren’t good at it, and it’s constricting the offense.

It’s not like this is a new development either; this has always been the Kingsbury offense. Which calls into question the extension Kingsbury received that has him in charge of Arizona through 2027. If he can’t generate a consistent passing game that isn’t as reliant on winning one on ones, then why is he here?

The Cardinals face a daunting test next Sunday, hosting the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. If Arizona wants to keep this game close, they’ll need to be better in the passing game.